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Risk On, BONK Out? PEPE Primed to Dominate the Next Crypto Cycle

Risk On, BONK Out? PEPE Primed to Dominate the Next Crypto Cycle

Author:
Ambcrypto
Published:
2025-07-10 21:00:46
19
1

The memecoin arena is heating up—again. While BONK stumbles, PEPE’s chart paints a bullish breakout pattern that’s got degens and institutional gamblers alike doubling down. Could this be the start of a PEPE-led altseason?

Signs of a Shift

PEPE’s recent volume surge and whale accumulation mimic early-stage rallies of previous cycle leaders. Meanwhile, BONK’s fading momentum suggests capital rotation—classic crypto Darwinism at work.

The Frog vs. The Dog

PEPE’s deflationary mechanics and absurdist lore give it staying power beyond pure speculation (unlike certain dog-themed tokens banking on Elon tweets). Still, both remain casino chips masquerading as assets—welcome to Web3 finance.

What’s Next?

If PEPE holds above key support, we could see a 2-3x before Q3 ends. But remember: in memecoin land, ‘fundamentals’ just means whose hype lasts longest between coffee breaks.

Key Takeaways

  • PEPE underperformance has been in sharp contrast to BONK’s, with the latter leading the market’s legacy memecoins. It’s being driven by Bonk.fun-fueled momentum. However, with risk appetite returning, is capital rotation about to flip the setup?

After weeks of range-bound chop, the memecoin market has snapped back to life. At press time, it had reclaimed the $60 billion market cap, rising by 7.10% with the 24-hour volume up by nearly 80%.

In fact, BONK has emerged as the clear outlier among legacy memecoins, posting 30% monthly gains. On the contrary, peers like Pepe might be lagging behind.

Does this divergence have staying power though? If risk appetite sticks, could PEPE be gearing up for a relative breakout, ready to ride the next wave of capital rotation into memecoins?

BONK breaks out, PEPE eyes a comeback

The late June to early July leg may have marked BONK’s most structurally sound rally since the election pump. 

The memecoin posted a NEAR 90% move off the $0.00001278-low, clearing three key resistance levels with sustained volume. In contrast, PEPE managed a 30% bounce from its $0.00000830 base.

This divergence also played out on the BTC pairs – BONK/BTC broke through its month-long resistance zone, while PEPE/BTC continued to compress below a declining trendline.

BONK/BTC

Source: TradingView (BONK/BTC)

Crucially though, this divergence wasn’t a fluke. Instead, it reflected a real shift in BONK’s on-chain momentum.

In late June, daily active addresses tied to BONK surged by over 180%, with new wallet creation up 140% week-over-week. BONK.fun mints spiked, briefly flipping Pump.fun in daily volume.

Consequently, while BONK rallied by 30%, PEPE dropped by 16% in the same window, failing to attract risk-on flows. However, with BONK now stalling at BTC-pair resistance, can PEPE capitalize to absorb the next rotation?

Memecoins recalibrate as risk sentiment flips bullish

With the memecoin market turning risk-on, capital rotation has been picking up pace. 

With Bitcoin [BTC] breaking into price discovery, traders are now cycling into high-beta plays, chasing asymmetric upside. 

PEPE is starting to front-run this rotation. It posted an 11% MOVE in under 72 hours. Meanwhile, BONK retraced by nearly 8% after tagging the $0.000023 supply wall – A level where realized profits surged to a five-month high of $11.7 million. 

PEPE

Source: Glassnode

On the other hand, PEPE kicked off July with nearly 10k new addresses, pushing total holders to an all-time high of 11.42 million.

In fact, this on-chain expansion aligned with a clean breakout above the $0.000010-level, while PEPE/BTC printed a bullish reversal.

Therefore, with BONK fading off its supply wall and risk capital rotating back into high-beta meme plays, PEPE may technically be primed to lead the next momentum cycle.

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