Crypto Surges While Altcoin Season Index Cools Off: Here’s What’s Driving the Rally
Crypto markets are defying gravity again—but not all boats are rising equally. Bitcoin and major altcoins are posting gains while the Altcoin Season Index shows surprising weakness. Here's why.
The Big Pump: Institutional Money Floods In
BlackRock's latest ETF filings and whispers of a Fed pivot are sending traders scrambling. Bitcoin’s up 12% this week alone, eating altcoin momentum for breakfast.
Altcoins Left in the Dust?
The Altcoin Season Index just dipped below 75—traditionally the threshold for ‘alt season.’ Ethereum’s lagging Bitcoin’s rally, and memecoins are oddly quiet. Are traders finally growing brains?
The Cynic’s Corner
Wall Street’s ‘crypto experts’ will spin this as ‘healthy rotation.’ Translation: they bought the top on shitcoins and need exit liquidity. Stay sharp—real seasons are made in red, not green.
Why crypto is going up today
The crypto market is booming as investors embrace a risk-on sentiment, with the Fear and Greed Index now in the “greed” zone. A likely reason is that market participants have adjusted to the new normal of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Additionally, the recent earnings season beat expectations, with most companies posting earnings and revenue above estimates. The blended earnings growth, with 90% of S&P 500 firms reporting, came in at 11.8%, well above the expected 5%. This strength has helped push top stock indices to record highs.
The crypto rally is also being fueled by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. These hopes intensified after weak U.S nonfarm payrollsearlier this month showed just 73,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%.
Several Fed officials, including Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, and Michele Bowman, have signaled that the central bank could cut rates in September. Historically, Bitcoin and altcoins tend to perform well during rate-cutting cycles.
American investors have also continued to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $54 billion in cumulative inflows, while ethereum funds have added $9.8 billion.
Other products, such as XRP’s XXRP and UXRP, and Solana’s SSK, have also seen significant inflows this year. Optimism is growing that the SEC may approve several spot altcoin ETFs.
The crypto market is also going up as the number of treasury companies jump. Some of the most aggressive buyers are SharpLink Gamingand BitMine, which are buying ETH, and TRON Inc., which is buying TRX.
Why Altcoin Season Index is falling
The Altcoin Season Index has trended lower in recent weeks. After peaking at 55 in July, it has dropped to 34, driven in part by rising bitcoin dominance.
CoinMarketCap data shows that the Bitcoin Dominance stands at 60%, up from the January low of 55.
While most cryptocurrencies gained on Monday, many remain well below their year-to-date highs. Pepe is down 21%, while BNB, Cardano, and solana have each fallen more than 10% from their July peaks.
