Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Forecast: Prime Buy Zone Ahead as Pullback Looms

Gold bulls eye a tactical retreat—just before the next leg up.

XAU/USD teeters at a critical inflection point after last week's rally. The charts whisper 'dip incoming,' but smart money knows: this isn't a breakdown—it's a reload opportunity.

Key Levels to Watch

Fibonacci retracement levels from the July low suggest strong support between $1,920-$1,935. Meanwhile, resistance clusters near $1,980—where institutional sellers lurked last quarter.

Macro Tailwinds

With the Fed's 'higher for longer' mantra losing conviction (and three rate cuts priced in for 2025), gold's structural uptrend remains intact. Funny how fiat currencies crumble when central banks face recessionary realities.

Bottom Line

This isn't 2008's safe-haven panic. It's 2025's calculated accumulation phase—before inflation data inevitably forces Powell's hand. Watch for institutional footprints in the COMEX options market for confirmation.

Key economic events of this week

Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD. 

Aug 12 – CPI & Core CPI:

A higher-than-expected Core CPI might put pressure on gold and support the USD.  Choppy price movement could result from this being offset by a weaker headline CPI.

Aug 14 – PPI & Unemployment Claims:

Stronger producer-level inflation WOULD be indicated by higher PPI figures, which would be negative for gold as expectations of Fed hawkishness rise.  A little increase in unemployment claims might help gold.

Aug 15 – Retail Sales & Consumer Sentiment:

Resilient consumer spending would be indicated by strong retail data, which would weigh on gold. Poor performance might lead to safe-haven purchases. Expectations for inflation and consumer sentiment will be important; high expectations could limit the potential of gold.

If the demand and inflation figures this week are strong, the bias may be skewed toward short-term pessimism; however, any indications of decreasing inflation or economic slowdown could swiftly turn the mood favorable.

Gold HTF Overview

As discussed in the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, the monthly timeframe is showing a move upwards towards external liquidity, and that is exactly what’s happening right now.

We can expect the move to continue towards $3440, and eventually towards a test of the previous ATH of $3500 as well.

Gold forecast for August 11th to August 15th, 2025

The major buying level for gold is in the 4h FVG of $3340-3310, as it has formed after breaking the structure in gold. We can expect a move of 200-500+ points in gold this week.

While selling can be expected at the $3340-3309 4h FVG level as mentioned above, however, it is better to wait for the daily timeframe selling zone, which is starting from $3431-$3451, as it is the daily supply zone of gold.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week; however, buys are strongly preferred over sells. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold. 

Resistance Levels

• $3431-3451 – daily timeframe supply

Support Levels 

• $3340-3310 – 4h FVG of gold