Bitcoin’s August Slump Drags On—Is This Hidden Catalyst About to Ignite a Bull Run?
Bitcoin keeps bleeding in August—but don’t count the bulls out yet. A stealth catalyst lurks beneath the market’s bearish veneer, and it could flip the script fast.
The Bear Grip Tightens (For Now)
BTC’s correction isn’t letting up. Traders are sweating, paper hands are folding, and the charts look like a red carpet for bears. Yet history whispers: this might just be the calm before the storm.
The Invisible Spark
Behind the scenes, institutional accumulation is creeping up. Whale wallets are filling, futures open interest is tightening, and—plot twist—retail hasn’t noticed. Sound familiar? It’s the same quiet buildup that preceded every major rally.
Wall Street’s Waiting Game
Meanwhile, traditional finance hedgies are ‘cautiously optimistic’ (translation: secretly stacking sats). After all, nothing spices up a quarterly report like a late-cycle crypto moonshot—just ask the guys who missed the last ATH.
Bottom line: Markets move when least expected. And right now? Nobody’s ready for what’s coming.
Labor market revisions may reshape Fed expectations
In its Aug. 4 report, 10x Research argues that Bitcoin’s recent price action aligns with typical August seasonality, but adds that something deeper is unfolding. Specifically, revised U.S. labor data points to a softer employment outlook than markets had priced in, potentially undermining the Fed’s “resilient economy” narrative.
This setup is very similar to Q3 of 2024, when the Fed unexpectedly lowered interest rates by 50 basis points in September in response to early indications of labor market weakness. Prior to that decision, markets had experienced a significant decline, but they later recovered after the policy change was confirmed.
Bitcoin may be preparing for a similar recovery if the Fed follows that pattern, one that is fueled more by a change in macro sentiment than by direct crypto catalysts.
According to 10x, the key variable to watch is not inflation or unemployment, but how the Fed interprets asset price corrections, particularly in equities, as signals of economic stress. That dynamic could again guide policy decisions ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin technical analysis
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s price remains under pressure, now sitting below the 20-day simple moving average of $117,239 and the upper Bollinger Band NEAR $121,345. The Bollinger Bands have begun to narrow, indicating reduced volatility and a potential squeeze setup.
Relative strength index has cooled to 46.21, moving below its 14-day average of 55.37, which suggests neutral-to-bearish momentum. The near-term range is defined by $112,000 as support and $119,500 as resistance, with no clear breakout in either direction.
The price is consolidating just above the lower Bollinger Band at $113,134, a zone that could serve as a base if sentiment turns more positive. If the Fed confirms dovish policy in the coming weeks, this could serve as the macro catalyst needed to break above the $117K–$120K zone.
Until then, bitcoin appears stuck in a sideways pattern, with downside risk still present but a rebound within reach if the narrative shifts.
