2028 U.S. Presidential Election Odds: Polymarket’s Top Contenders Revealed

Political betting heats up as crypto-powered prediction market Polymarket drops early odds for the 2028 race. Who’s leading the pack—and which dark horses could upset the establishment?

Polymarket’s Top Picks

The prediction platform—where ‘investors’ gamble real money on geopolitical outcomes—already shows surprising momentum for candidates who haven’t officially declared. Because nothing says democracy like speculating on leadership changes before campaigns even start.

Market Movers vs. Long Shots

Frontrunners dominate the board, but watch for volatility: Polymarket traders flip positions faster than a politician reversing stance on crypto regulation. One thing’s certain—the only guaranteed winner is the house (as usual).

On the other hand, Vice President J.D. Vance seems to be the popular choice for bettors who think the 40-year-old could takeover the WHITE House after Trump steps down as President. Vance is currently in the lead with 28% odds, boasting a volume of $142,172 from investors.

Vance’s number recently dipped from 51% when the betting pool first opened on Polymarket. Since then, his numbers have dipped and remained consistent around the 25% to 28% range.

Who else is Polymarket betting on?

Aside from Trump and Vance, bettors are also setting their sights on a variety of figures from both sides of the Presidential race. In second place by total YES votes is Californian Governor and Democrat Gavin Newsom with 14% odds.

After Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has also become a popular pick from the Democratic side with 11% of bettors voting YES. Currently serving in the U.S. House of Representatives for New York’s 14th congressional district, Ocasio-Cortez recently received death threats and vandalism over her Israel-related vote on defense spending bill.

Other notable figures on the poll list include Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., and even former Trump supporter and X owner Elon Musk.

Interestingly enough, former Vice President and former 2024 Presidential candidate Kamala Harris‘ name is also in the polling. With the third largest betting volume after Trump and Vance at $117,168, Harris holds the same number of odds as her political opponent Donald Trump, at 3%.

How influential are Polymarket bets?

In the past, Polymarket bets have been used as an indicator to predict outcomes in real-world events. During the previous 2024 U.S. election, traders wagered more than $3.6 billion in betting volume alone. By the time the poll closed, Trump won the poll by a landslide vote of 99.8% and a participation volume of $1.5 billion.

In the crypto space, Polymarket has also been used to try and predict the true identity of Bitcoin (BTC) creator Satoshi Nakamoto, that traders believed would be unmasked in an HBO documentary titled “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery.”

However the platform also came under fire after suffering a governance attack on their UMA oracle related to Trump’s Ukrainian mineral deal. At the time, a last-minute intervention from a whale tipped the results in their favor. This incident led to a downturn of trader trust in the platform’s final outcomes.