Gold’s Reckoning: XAUUSD Primed for $3300 Retrace—Or Just Another Trader Fantasy?

Gold bulls brace for impact as XAUUSD teeters on the edge of a major retracement. Technicals scream ’buy the dip,’ but Wall Street’s crystal ball remains foggy with Fed whispers and ETF flows muddying the waters.

Key levels to watch: A clean break below $3400 opens the floodgates to $3300—where physical demand could slap algorithmic traders sideways. Meanwhile, ’safe haven’ narratives clash with Bitcoin ETFs cannibalizing gold’s shine.

Pro tip: Watch COMEX open interest like a hawk. When paper gold meets physical delivery demands, things get spicy. Just don’t expect your banker to explain the contango.

Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news

In the previous week’s forecast we gave the selling level of gold in 1h, from where gold dumped 1420 points. 

We also shared a major buying level of gold in the weekly FVG, from which gold is up 827 points, at the time of writing.

Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.

Key economic events of this week

Not many significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, but it is still expected to impact XAUUSD. 

Two early measures of economic health are the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI.  They have the following effects on the gold vs. US dollar (XAU/USD) pair:

• Strong PMIs (Manufacturing + Services): Show economic expansion, which boosts the US currency and usually results in lower gold prices (a decline in XAU/USD).

• Weak PMIs: Indicate a slowdown in the economy, which devalues the US dollar and raises the price of gold (XAU/USD).

In summary, while negative PMI data can push gold prices higher, positive data tends to push them lower.

Gold HTF Overview

Gold has already tested its weekly FVG and closed above it, which is a bullish sign for gold. The next targets according to the weekly timeframe can be $3260 and $3328.86 which signify the untested lows and highs of the previous weekly candles.

Gold Forecast for May 19th to May 23rd

Gold is showing bullish momentum in all lower time frames which makes buying an ideal position to enter and hold. 

On the 1 hour timeframe the strongest buying level is coming up at the bullish order block of $3129.85-3152.56.

On the 4h timeframe the buying opportunity is much lower around $3098-$3038. This is also the the last daily FVG of this entire bullish rally for which the low is $2956 which can be your invalidation point for buys and flipping towards sells on retracement, but that is far away for now.

In the 4 hour timeframe selling can be expected from the $3284-3325 levels, due to FVG, and structure area of the 4h timeframe.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

Below, we’ll take a look at support and resistance levels for XAUUSD this week.

Support Levels 

• $3098-$3038  – 4h support, daily FVG 
• $3129.85-3152.56 – 1h bullish order block

Resistance Levels 

• $3284-3325 levels – 4h FVG and structure level

To conclude, the SAFE strategy in gold is to look for sells in the lower time frame levels and look for buying in the higher time frame levels. You can mark these levels on your chart for easier trading guidance when you trade.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.