SEC’s Endless Crypto ETF Delays Fuel Analyst Optimism—’Approval Inevitable’

Wall Street’s favorite regulatory foot-dragging tactic hits new highs as SEC postpones yet another crypto ETF decision. Meanwhile, analysts place bets on eventual approval—because even bureaucrats can’t ignore $30B in sidelined capital forever.

The delay playbook: How regulators turn ’careful consideration’ into a 5-year performance art piece. Spoiler: It always ends with Wall Street getting what it wants.

Bonus jab: Nothing moves faster than a banker chasing fees—except maybe the SEC avoiding accountability.

Ripple (XRP) holds a slightly lower 85% chance of approval. The eventual outcome for XRP is still likely tied to how regulators categorize it—particularly after the CFTC’s April 21 announcement that it considers XRP a regulated asset for futures markets.

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) are each assigned an 80% chance of approval. Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) trail slightly behind with a 75% chance of approval.

“Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all have a good chance of happening,” Balchunas wrote on X.

While approval odds are rather high for most filings, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission continues to issue delays across the crypto ETF landscape. On April 29, the SEC postponed decisions on several applications: Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF, now facing a final deadline of Oct. 7, and its spot XRP ETF, with a deadline of Nov 5. Grayscale’s spot Hedera ETF and Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF were also delayed, both now set for final rulings by Oct. 8. In addition, the SEC deferred a decision on the staking provisions tied to Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF, though a final deadline for that proposal has yet to be announced.

On April 24, the SEC had also delayed decisions on Bitwise’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, as well as Canary Capital’s Hedera ETF. The new deadlines for those filings are set for June 10 and June 11, respectively.