Ethereum Plunges Below $3.9K as Spot ETFs Bleed $145M - MVRV ’Death Cross’ Signals Trouble Ahead
Ethereum faces a brutal reality check as institutional confidence evaporates.
The Great Unwinding
Spot ETFs hemorrhage $145 million in outflows while ETH price collapses below the critical $3,900 support level. The exodus hits just as MVRV Momentum flashes its dreaded 'death cross' signal - a technical pattern that historically precedes extended downtrends.
Institutional Flight
Wall Street's crypto flirtation shows its fickle nature as ETF investors race for exits. The $145 million withdrawal marks one of the largest single-day outflows since the funds launched, suggesting professional money managers are losing patience with Ethereum's underperformance relative to Bitcoin.
Technical Breakdown
MVRV Momentum's death cross formation indicates network value is decoupling from realized value - typically a precursor to further price deterioration. The metric, which compares market value to realized value momentum, suggests the smart contract platform faces significant headwinds despite its fundamental utility.
Traders now watch whether $3,750 holds as support or whether we're witnessing the beginning of a deeper correction. Because nothing says 'decentralized future' like watching hedge funds dictate price action through spot ETF flows.
Spot ETH ETF outflows weigh on sentiment
According to SoSoValue data, ethereum spot ETFs saw $145.68 million in net outflows on Oct. 20, marking the third consecutive day of withdrawals. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $117.8 million, followed by Fidelity’s FETH with $27.8 million. Other issuers remained largely unchanged.
Monthly outflows have now totaled $652 million, indicating institutional caution as well as a general shift in capital toward other safer assets like gold and Bitcoin (BTC). This change has dampened expectations for Ethereum’s long-awaited climb above $5,000, stalling momentum from its earlier “Uptober” rally.
Adding to the bearish tone, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez noted that Ethereum’s MVRV Momentum just flashed a “death cross” — a pattern that last preceded a drop from $3,300 to $1,400.
The last time the MVRV Momentum flashed a death cross, Ethereum $ETH dropped from $3,300 to $1,400.
That signal just appeared again! pic.twitter.com/ef7i6cfSXM
The MVRV Momentum metric tracks the speed at which unrealized profits or losses are changing across the network. When momentum goes negative, it indicates that holders are entering loss territory more quickly than fresh capital is coming in, which could indicate a sell-off or waning demand.
Ethereum price technical analysis
On the daily chart, ETH trades below the 20-day moving average at $4,177, indicating short-term weakness. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands indicates low volatility before a potential breakout. The relative strength index, which is currently hovering around 41, suggests that bears are still in control but that the market is not yet oversold.
The $3,700 mark provides immediate support, and a stronger floor where prior rebounds have formed is located around $3,500. A close above the $4,200 resistance level could pave the way for a MOVE toward $4,500.
ETH may test the lower band once more if outflows persist and MVRV conditions worsen. If ETF sentiment improves, stabilization close to the current range could draw dip-buying interest and provide a gradual recovery window.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
