Citi’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction: $135K Floor, $199K Surge Possible by 2025

Wall Street wakes up to crypto—again. Citi just dropped a bombshell price forecast that’ll make HODLers grin and goldbugs squirm.

The baseline bet: $135K per Bitcoin. Not a moon shot, but a solid ‘institutional FOMO’ target. The kind of number that gets pension funds sweating.

The bull case? A spicy $199K. That’s when your Uber driver starts explaining UTXO consolidation to you—while merging lanes.

Timeline? 2025. Same year most banks promise their ‘blockchain transformations’ will finally—maybe—launch. (We’ll believe it when we see it.)

One thing’s clear: When traditional finance starts throwing 6-figure targets, the game’s changed. Whether that’s smart money or dumb money? Place your bets.

TLDR

• Citi has released updated Bitcoin price forecasts with bear, base, and bullish scenarios for 2025.
• The base case projects the Bitcoin price to reach $135,000 by the end of 2025.
• The bullish scenario expects the Bitcoin price to climb as high as $199,000.
• A bearish outlook places the Bitcoin price at $64,000 under weaker macroeconomic conditions.
• ETF inflows are estimated to contribute around $63,000 to Bitcoin’s valuation this year.

According to new projections released by Citi, Bitcoin may experience significant price movement in 2025. The bank outlines three distinct scenarios: bearish, base case, and bullish, anchored in macroeconomic and market conditions. Its base case expects the Bitcoin price to reach $135,000, while the bullish projection targets $199,000 by year-end.

🔥 UPDATE: Wall Street giant Citi forecasts $BTC to hit $135K by year-end base case, bull case sees $199K, fueled by ETF demand, user growth, and macro trends. pic.twitter.com/6gmCFpYtNy

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 25, 2025

The forecast also includes a bearish outcome, placing the bitcoin price at $64,000 under weaker economic conditions. Citi’s analysis integrates institutional demand, user growth, and macro factors into its predictive framework. These elements collectively shape the final estimates across all forecast scenarios.

Citi bases its conclusions on quantifiable market dynamics and updated institutional participation levels. Its report underscores how specific inputs, like ETF inflows and user adoption rates, influence Bitcoin’s valuation. This comprehensive model reflects both macro and microeconomic variables impacting the asset.

Institutional Demand Drives Valuation

Citi emphasizes the rising influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs in determining current price levels. Since their launch, U.S. ETFs have acquired over $54.66 billion in Bitcoin, significantly affecting market performance. BlackRock and Fidelity account for a large portion of these inflows.

According to Citi’s internal models, ETF demand currently explains over 40% of the bitcoin price variation. Moreover, the bank anticipates an additional $15 billion in ETF inflows during 2025, which could potentially add around $63,000 to the Bitcoin price.

Globally, ETFs now control over 1.48 million BTC, valued at more than $170 billion. This represents about 7% of the total Bitcoin supply in circulation. As institutional interest expands, its impact on the Bitcoin price continues to deepen.

Network Growth Supports Price Floor

In addition to institutional flows, Citi evaluates user growth as a structural factor influencing the Bitcoin price. The analysts project a 20% increase in global users, supporting a base price level of nearly $75,000. This figure comes from their adoption-based valuation model.

User engagement is increasing in both frequency and duration, creating stronger network effects than before. These changes help reinforce the asset’s valuation framework alongside capital inflows. The combined effect leads to a more resilient and integrated pricing model.

Citi also adjusts forecasts for macroeconomic conditions, reducing price estimates by $3,200. This change reflects expected weakness in equities and commodity markets. Despite this, rising regulatory support further strengthens the forecast’s confidence.

Bitcoin Price Reflects Multiple Growth Engines

Citi combines ETF demand, user adoption, and economic conditions to build its base case projection. The result is a Bitcoin price forecast of $135,000 by 2025. This includes $63,000 from institutional flows, $75,000 from user growth, and a $3,200 reduction for macro headwinds.

This estimate marks only a $12,000 increase from Bitcoin’s recent high of $123,000. Yet, the bullish model indicates potential for a surge to $199,000. Citi’s analysis confirms institutional capital is now the primary driver of the Bitcoin price.