Coinbase (COIN) Smashes Through Double Downgrade to Reach Record High—Crypto Bulls Don’t Care

Wall Street analysts hit 'sell'—Coinbase hit 'ignore.' The crypto exchange's stock just punched through its all-time high despite a double downgrade, proving once again that traditional finance logic melts faster than a shitcoin in a bear market.

Defying Gravity (and Skeptics)

While suits in Manhattan scribbled 'reduce exposure' on their notepads, COIN ripped past previous records. No fancy footwork—just pure, unfiltered market defiance. The stock's surge mirrors crypto's 2025 renaissance, where every 'overbought' warning gets trampled by institutional FOMO.

Bonus Cynical Jab: Another day, another 'prudent' analyst watching their short position evaporate like a DeFi rug pull.

TLDR

• H.C. Wainwright downgraded COIN from buy to sell, citing slowing spot trading activity and overdone rally
• Stock rose 4% to new all-time high of $389 despite the downgrade warning
• Bitcoin hit record high above $113,000, driving crypto exchange momentum
• Q2 earnings scheduled for July 31 with mixed analyst expectations
• Coinbase acquiring Deribit to strengthen crypto derivatives position

Coinbase shares climbed more than 4% Thursday to reach a new all-time high of $389, completely ignoring a rare double downgrade from investment firm H.C. Wainwright. The crypto exchange stock has been riding the wave of bitcoin’s surge to new records above $113,000.

H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese made a dramatic shift in his outlook, cutting his rating from buy to sell in a MOVE that caught many off guard. His concerns center on what he calls an overdone rally that has pushed the stock up roughly 150% since April lows.

“While we continue to view Coinbase as a ‘Best of Breed’ crypto exchange and remain positive on the sector, we believe valuation has outstripped near-term fundamentals,” Colonnese wrote in his client note. He’s particularly worried about a “meaningful decline” in spot trading volume on centralized exchanges during the second quarter.

The analyst expects this slowdown to hurt Coinbase’s transaction revenue, which remains the company’s largest income source. However, he does anticipate subscription and services revenue, including staking and custody, to perform better than expected.

Colonnese’s bearish stance puts him at odds with most Wall Street analysts. Barclays maintains a neutral rating despite also expecting a weak second quarter report. Oppenheimer remains more optimistic with an outperform rating on the stock.

The stock’s resilience in the face of the downgrade shows just how strong the crypto momentum has become. Bitcoin’s push to new records has lifted the entire sector, with investors betting on continued growth in digital asset adoption.

Earnings and Expansion Plans

Coinbase is set to release its Q2 2025 financial results on July 31 after market close, followed by a Q&A session with investors. The timing couldn’t be more interesting given the current valuation debates surrounding the stock.

The company has delivered impressive returns with a year-to-date gain of 52.58% and a one-year return of 72.55%. These numbers far outpace the S&P 500’s modest 6.75% and 11.45% gains over the same periods.

Recent analyst moves have been mixed but generally supportive. Barclays raised its price target from $202 to $359, citing robust Q2 trading volume expectations. The firm’s analysts see strength in the platform’s trading activity despite broader market concerns.

Coinbase trades at a P/E ratio of 63.7, well above the industry average of 22. This high valuation has some analysts worried about the stock’s current price levels.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved upward by 22.8% and 3.5% respectively in the past 30 days. This shows growing confidence in the company’s ability to capitalize on the crypto boom.

Strategic Moves and Global Growth

Coinbase is making strategic moves to expand its market position beyond basic trading services. The company is acquiring Deribit, the top crypto-options exchange globally by open interest and trading volume.

This deal is expected to strengthen Coinbase’s leadership in the crypto derivatives market, particularly outside the U.S. The acquisition should expand the company’s revenue base and global footprint at a time when international growth is becoming increasingly important.

The company is also diversifying its offerings by supporting tokenized assets and launching products like cbXRP and cbDOGE. These efforts align with Coinbase’s goal to become the go-to platform for enterprises looking to integrate crypto into their operations.

On the global expansion front, Coinbase is entering emerging markets such as Argentina and India. The company has also secured regulatory approval in countries like Spain, France, Singapore, and Bermuda.

This international strategy helps reduce reliance on U.S. operations while engaging a wider retail and institutional audience. The move comes at a time when regulatory clarity in various jurisdictions is improving.

Coinbase is heavily investing in its Ethereum-based LAYER 2 network called Base. The platform supports reduced fees and scalability improvements, key factors for broader crypto adoption.

The company recently launched a $5 million bug bounty program to improve Base’s security. It has also added privacy tools from the Iron Fish acquisition to strengthen the platform’s capabilities.

Despite the positive momentum, some analysts remain cautious about the stock’s current valuation. GuruFocus assigns a one-year fair value estimate of $213.72, implying a 43% downside from current levels.

The average one-year target from 28 analysts stands at $301.66, suggesting the stock may be getting ahead of itself. However, the continuing crypto rally and bitcoin’s push to new records could provide further support for the shares.