Trump Declares TikTok Deal “Pretty Much” Finalized as China Talks Loom

The TikTok saga nears its climax—Trump claims the deal's done, but Wall Street's already pricing in the regulatory whiplash.

Behind the curtain: ByteDance's dance with US regulators just got a reality TV twist.

Why it matters: When geopolitics and social media collide, hedge funds place bets before the ink dries. Meanwhile, retail traders are left deciphering presidential tweets like ancient scrolls.

TLDRs;

• Trump says TikTok deal is nearly finalized, with talks set for July 7 or 8.
• ByteDance faces a September 17 deadline to divest its U.S. operations.
• U.S. aims to create a U.S.-controlled TikTok entity, but China has resisted.
• TikTok’s massive user base and revenue make an outright ban increasingly unlikely.

U.S. President Donald TRUMP has revealed that negotiations surrounding TikTok’s future in the United States are nearing completion, ahead of a high-level meeting with Chinese officials scheduled for July 7 or 8.

The planned talks, expected to involve Chinese President Xi Jinping or his representatives, are likely to finalize the fate of the video-sharing platform amid prolonged geopolitical tension.

The president’s statement comes as the September 17 deadline he imposed on ByteDance, TikTok’s China-based parent company, to divest its U.S. operations continues to loom. According to Trump, the two sides have “pretty much” reached a deal, suggesting that only final confirmations remain before an agreement can be officially announced.

Trump: "We pretty much have a deal—on TikTok… I think the deal is good for China—and it's good for us, and for us it's money." pic.twitter.com/P1pFD7sl6y

— Disclose.tv Clips (@disclosetvclips) July 5, 2025

TikTok’s Future Caught Between Two Superpowers

At the heart of the matter lies ByteDance’s struggle to satisfy both U.S. national security demands and Chinese regulatory resistance. Washington has raised concerns that TikTok’s user data could be accessed by the Chinese government, while Beijing has pushed back against what it views as American overreach aimed at stifling its tech sector.

A previously proposed plan to establish a new U.S.-based entity, majority-owned by American investors, was delayed after Chinese regulators signaled disapproval. These delays underscore how digital platforms like TikTok have become entangled in broader trade and strategic discussions between the world’s two largest economies.

Trump’s Shift from Ban to Deal

Trump’s latest remarks reflect a noticeable shift in his administration’s approach. In the past, he supported a full ban of TikTok in the U.S., citing national security risks. Now, however, he appears more focused on brokering a deal that allows TikTok to continue operating under American oversight, potentially appeasing both domestic stakeholders and international counterparts.

Analysts believe the change in tone may also be influenced by political factors, particularly the approaching U.S. presidential election. The platform is extremely popular with younger voters, and an outright ban could carry political costs. By pursuing a controlled transition instead, the administration may be attempting to strike a balance between national security and public sentiment.

TikTok’s Global Impact Makes Ban Unlikely

With over 1 billion monthly active users and an estimated 150 million of them in the United States, TikTok’s cultural and economic footprint has grown too large to ignore. The platform generated over $14 billion in revenue in 2023 and is projected to surpass 2 billion global users by the end of 2025.

Its algorithmic recommendation system has redefined digital engagement, giving it an edge over traditional American platforms and attracting advertisers eager to reach its vast user base. Critics argue that banning such a dominant player WOULD not only disrupt the digital economy but also send a troubling message about tech freedom in the U.S.

Talks May Set Precedent for Global Tech Regulation

The upcoming talks between Washington and Beijing could mark a pivotal moment in global tech regulation. If an agreement is finalized, it may serve as a blueprint for how international tech companies navigate complex political landscapes in the future.

For now, the world is watching as TikTok’s fate hangs in the balance. Both sides appear interested in avoiding a total breakdown, and Trump’s “pretty much done” comment suggests optimism. Still, with national interests and economic stakes intertwined, nothing is guaranteed until signatures are on paper.