Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Cooling Market Sets Stage for Explosive Breakout—Here’s Why

Bitcoin's coiled spring tightens—after weeks of sideways action, BTC's 'boring' consolidation might just be the calm before the storm.

The quiet before the rally?

Market fatigue is real. Traders yawn as BTC chops between support and resistance, but volume tells the real story: whales aren’t selling, they’re stacking. This isn’t stagnation—it’s accumulation.

Breakout math even Wall Street can’t ignore

Every historic BTC surge started with a sleepwalking market. The longer the squeeze, the bigger the pop. And right now? We’re entering maximum tension territory.

The cynical kicker

Meanwhile, traditional finance still thinks 'diversification' means 60/40 stocks-bonds while Bitcoin quietly eats both. Wake up calls aren’t polite.

TLDR

• Bitcoin is attempting to turn $108,000 resistance into support for the fourth time while trading at $107,555
• Market bubble chart shows cooling phase rather than overheating despite BTC being within 5% of its $111,814 all-time high
• Analyst identifies transitional period in Bitcoin’s cycle with key weekly support level at $104,400 needing reclaim
• Technical pattern suggests inverse head and shoulders formation targeting potential $125,000 breakout
• On-chain data shows declining apparent demand since May 2025, raising some caution about buyer interest

Bitcoin has entered a unique phase in its current cycle, with the cryptocurrency trading near $107,555 as it attempts to establish crucial support levels. The digital asset is working to convert the $108,000 resistance into support for the fourth time, marking what analysts describe as a transitional period.

Market analyst Rekt Capital has identified this cycle as “truly a cycle of re-accumulation ranges” that have formed since late 2022. The current phase represents the first time Bitcoin has experienced a transitional period around re-accumulation range highs, creating a different pattern from previous cycles.

The key level for Bitcoin’s future direction lies at $104,400 in the weekly timeframe. This support level held for nearly seven weeks before recent pullbacks caused BTC to close below it. Analysts stress that this level must not become resistance for the cryptocurrency to maintain its upward trajectory.

Bitcoin’s recent performance shows a 3.2% increase in the weekly timeframe. The cryptocurrency needs to reclaim and hold the $104,400 level to position itself for the next multi-week price discovery uptrend.

Market Cooling Signals Potential Room for Growth

Despite trading less than 5% below its all-time high of $111,814 recorded in May 2025, bitcoin shows no signs of market overheating. CryptoQuant analysis reveals the market is currently in a cooling phase, which historically suggests room for further price appreciation.

The Bitcoin bubble chart, which visualizes market conditions using trading volume data, indicates the market remains in cooling territory. This differs from typical patterns where Bitcoin shows overheating signs when approaching all-time highs.

Bitcoin has maintained this cooling phase since its April 2025 bottom of $74,508. The price has climbed more than 20% since then without displaying signs of a speculative peak.

The stable market foundation suggests that breaking past the all-time high will likely require favorable macroeconomic conditions. These could include interest rate cuts or easing regulatory pressures.

Technical Patterns Point to Higher Targets

Technical analysis reveals Bitcoin continues following a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the monthly timeframe. This formation typically signals a potential reversal from downtrend to uptrend, with analysts eyeing a potential breakout to $125,000.

#Bitcoin Targeting $125,000? 🧲

The Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern remains valid.#BTC held the retest.
Next stop: neckline projection. pic.twitter.com/KPzHUQ2qYA

— Titan of crypto (@Washigorira) June 26, 2025

The inverse head and shoulders pattern consists of three troughs with a lower low called “the head” between two higher lows called “the shoulders.” A breakout typically occurs when price crosses above the neckline resistance.

However, on-chain data presents mixed signals for Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. Apparent demand has been declining steadily since May 2025, suggesting weakening buyer interest.

The Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is beginning to show signs of bull market fatigue. A flattening MVRV slope often indicates momentum slowdown and increased caution among investors.

The timeline for Bitcoin’s next uptrend depends on the length of the current transitional period. Analysts believe it will take longer than previous cycles to break out of the current range.

What follows the upcoming uptrend will depend on its duration, potentially leading to an extended cycle or prolongation that could push the cycle peak into deeper stages of 2025.

Analysts emphasize that the next corrective period, which could see Bitcoin drop 25% to 33%, should remain short to potentially enable a third price discovery uptrend before any bear market begins.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $107,175, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours, as the market continues to build its base around current levels.