Nvidia (NVDA) Defies Export Curbs as AI Chip Frenzy Sends Stock Soaring

Wall Street's favorite AI cash machine just laughed at geopolitics.

Nvidia's stock rockets past supply chain fears

While Washington plays whack-a-mole with chip exports, Nvidia's silicon keeps printing money. The Street clearly believes Huang's engineering team has more tricks up their sleeve than a Vegas magician.

Another quarter, another masterclass in how to turn compute cores into pure shareholder dopamine. Maybe the SEC should investigate these suspiciously consistent returns.

TLDR

• Nvidia stock jumped 2.6% to $147.90, reaching its highest level since January’s record close of $149.43
• Shares have gained over 9% since May 28 earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500’s 3.5% gain in the same period
• China export ban cost Nvidia $2.5 billion in Q1 revenue with projected $8 billion loss in Q2
• Redburn analysts reiterated “Buy” rating ahead of August 27 earnings, citing strong positioning for Blackwell transition
• Jim Cramer suggests CEO Jensen Huang wants to sell GPUs to China despite current trade restrictions

Nvidia stock surged 2.6% on Tuesday to close at $147.90 per share. The AI chipmaker reached its highest trading level since setting a record close in January.

The stock came within reach of its all-time closing high of $149.43, set on January 6. Tuesday’s rally extended Nvidia’s recovery following strong first-quarter earnings results in late May.

Shares have climbed more than 9% since the company’s May 28 earnings report. This performance beats the S&P 500’s roughly 3.5% gain over the same timeframe.

The earnings report showed revenue that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The results demonstrated Nvidia’s ability to maintain growth despite facing new export restrictions on chip sales to China.

Trade Tensions Impact Revenue

China export bans have created challenges for the chipmaker. The restrictions on H20 chip sales cost Nvidia $2.5 billion in lost revenue during the first quarter.

The company projects an $8 billion revenue loss in the second quarter due to these trade measures. China represents one of Nvidia’s largest markets for AI chip sales.

President Trump’s trade policies have created uncertainty for tech stocks throughout 2025. Nvidia shares struggled in the months following January’s record high as trade tensions escalated.

The stock hit its lowest closing price in over a year on April 4, ending at just over $94. Chinese startup DeepSeek’s cheap AI model launch in January also sparked demand concerns for Nvidia’s chips.

Competition from Chinese tech giant Huawei has intensified in the domestic market. Huawei is reportedly developing a new advanced AI chip that competes with Nvidia’s prior-generation H100 processors.

Analyst Outlook Remains Positive

Redburn analysts reiterated their “Buy” rating for Nvidia on Monday. The firm expressed confidence in the company’s positioning ahead of August 27 earnings.

Analysts expect the July quarter results to show rising networking attach rates. They also anticipate a smooth transition to Blackwell Ultra B300 chips.

The research note highlighted sustained improvement in AI model capability. This development should drive continued AI capital expenditure investment across the industry.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer recently discussed Nvidia’s relationship with China trade policy. He suggested CEO Jensen Huang wants to sell GPUs to China but faces current restrictions.

Cramer noted that Huang WOULD prefer to provide China with Biden-era approved chips like the H20. The TV host maintains that Nvidia holds a commanding position in AI despite recent volatility.

Other chip stocks rallied alongside Nvidia on Tuesday. Intel climbed 6.4%, AMD gained 6.8%, and Broadcom ROSE 3.9%.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) shares soared roughly 4.7%. The Taiwan-based contract manufacturer produces chips for Nvidia and other tech companies.

Bank of America analysts reported that tech inflows hit their highest level last week since June 2024. The data suggests investors are returning to technology stocks after recent uncertainty.

The Nasdaq 100 hit a fresh record close on Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite reached its highest levels since February, reflecting broad-based tech stock strength.

Nvidia briefly overtook Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company in early June. The chipmaker’s recovery has been supported by deals with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for AI chip supplies.