How Polymarket Defied the US Ban to Hit a $1 Billion Valuation

Polymarket just joined the crypto unicorn club—and did it with regulators breathing down its neck. The prediction market platform cracked the $1 billion valuation mark despite being banned in the United States. Here's how they pulled it off.

The Regulatory Dodgeball Play

While US traders got locked out, Polymarket pivoted hard to international markets. Asia and Europe soaked up its crypto-powered betting contracts like digital adrenaline. Turns out, when you can't play in Wall Street's sandbox, you just build a bigger sandcastle elsewhere.

Liquidity Finds a Way

The platform's trading volume exploded as geopolitical and crypto events drove speculative frenzy. Polymarket's secret sauce? Letting punters bet on everything from election outcomes to ETH price swings—all while 'technically' not being a securities exchange. Wink.

The Billion-Dollar Irony

Now here's the kicker: that valuation came largely from investors who still can't legally use the product in their home country. Only in crypto-land does getting banned become a growth hack. Next up: a SEC settlement packaged as an NFT?

TLDR

• Polymarket is finalizing a $200 million funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund that would value the company at over $1 billion
• The prediction market platform is banned for American users and faced FBI scrutiny in November when agents seized founder Shayne Coplan’s electronics
• The company experienced explosive growth during the 2024 US presidential election with trading volume reaching $2.5 billion in November
• Polymarket currently has 1.2 million traders and processes around $1.1 billion in monthly trading volume as of May 2025
• The platform recently partnered with Elon Musk’s X to integrate prediction markets with Grok AI analysis

Polymarket is close to completing a $200 million funding round that WOULD value the prediction market platform at over $1 billion. Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund is leading the investment round for the blockchain-based betting platform.

The funding would give Polymarket unicorn status despite being banned for American users. The platform prohibits US-based traders in line with guidance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Polymarket — still banned for US users — is becoming a unicorn. https://t.co/uGTKWEmCu1

— Bloomberg (@business) June 24, 2025

Founded in 2020 by CEO Shayne Coplan, Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency. Traders buy and sell shares linked to specific outcomes, with prices for opposing sides totaling $1.

The platform gained massive popularity during the 2024 US presidential election. Trading volume reached $2.5 billion in November as users wagered on election outcomes and other events.

Polymarket contracts predicting a Republican sweep surged during the election cycle. This occurred even as traditional media outlets and polls favored Democrat Kamala Harris.

Platform Growth and Current Markets

The platform currently hosts 1.2 million traders across 21,000 open markets. Users have taken 20 million open positions with $700 million in active trading volume.

Monthly trading volume for May 2025 was around $1.1 billion according to Dune Analytics. This represents a 56% decline from the November peak of $2.5 billion.

Current betting markets include questions about Iranian regime stability and potential US recession in 2025. Users can also bet on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds and Federal Reserve rate decisions.

The platform shows an 87% chance that the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill will become law this year. Other popular markets include the New York City mayoral primary outcome.

Regulatory Challenges and Restrictions

The FBI executed a search warrant on Polymarket in November 2024. Agents seized founder Shayne Coplan’s electronics over concerns about potential American user access.

Beyond the US, Polymarket faces restrictions in multiple countries. The platform is banned or limited in France, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Poland and Belgium.

The company has faced scrutiny over allegations of prediction market manipulation. Critics have questioned the accuracy and integrity of some market outcomes.

Polymarket recently announced a partnership with Elon Musk’s social media platform X in early June. The collaboration aims to combine prediction markets with analysis from the Grok AI chatbot.

The platform competes with other prediction markets including Kalshi and PredictIt. Kalshi has backing from Y Combinator and Sequoia Capital.