Solana (SOL) at Critical Juncture: Support Levels Tested as ETF Approval Odds Skyrocket to 91%

Solana's SOL token is dancing on a knife's edge—testing key support levels while Wall Street suddenly develops a 91% conviction that an ETF is inevitable. Funny how institutional interest appears precisely when retail starts sweating.

Make or break territory

The charts show SOL flirting with levels that either trigger a cascade or launch the next leg up. No middle ground here—crypto never bothers with one.

ETF mania reloaded

After Bitcoin and Ethereum got their shiny Wall Street wrappers, SOL's 91% approval probability suggests TradFi finally learned how to spell 'blockchain.' Expect sudden banker enthusiasm if price holds.

This is crypto's perpetual cycle: retail bleeds first, institutions extract value later. SOL's next move depends on whether support holds before the suits finish their due diligence—or whatever they call reading tweets these days.

TLDR

• Solana price dropped from $160 to $145, breaking below key support levels and trading under the 100-hourly moving average
• VanEck’s Solana ETF has been listed on DTCC website under ticker VSOL, signaling potential SEC approval is near
• Bloomberg analysts predict 91% chance of SEC approval for Solana ETFs in the coming months
• SOL faces resistance at $152-155 levels, with further decline possible if it breaks below $142 support
• Multiple asset managers including CoinShares and Bitwise have filed for Solana ETF proposals

Solana has experienced a sharp price decline, falling from the $160 resistance zone to test support levels near $145. The cryptocurrency broke below several technical indicators during this downturn.

The price action saw SOL trading below the $155 support level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. A bullish trend line with support at $150 was also breached during the decline.

SOL reached a low NEAR $145 before entering a consolidation phase. The price tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline from $158 to $145.

Current resistance levels sit at $150, with the next major resistance at $152. This level aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline.

If solana can break above $155, it could target the $160 and potentially $165 levels. However, failure to clear $152 resistance may lead to further downside.

Technical Outlook for SOL

The hourly MACD indicator shows bearish momentum gaining pace. The Relative Strength Index remains below the 50 level, indicating continued selling pressure.

Key support levels to watch include $145 and $142. A break below $142 could send the price toward the $130 zone.

Further decline below $130 support might target the $125 level in the near term. These levels will be critical for determining SOL’s next directional move.

ETF Development Boosts Long-term Prospects

While price action remains bearish, regulatory developments provide a positive backdrop for Solana. VanEck’s proposed Solana ETF has been listed on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation website.

The listing appears under ticker VSOL in the “active and pre-launch” funds section. The DTCC notes the fund cannot be created or redeemed pending regulatory approval.

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas predict SEC approval could come within the next month. Polymarket odds for Solana ETF approval have reached 91%.

The SEC has been engaging with ETF issuers to revise their S-1 filings. This activity suggests active evaluation of these investment products.

Multiple asset managers have entered the Solana ETF race. CoinShares and Bitwise have submitted proposals alongside VanEck’s application.

Some filings have incorporated staking options, indicating broader product offerings in the crypto ETF space. Franklin Templeton’s SOL ETF faced recent delays in the approval process.

The CME’s announcement of Solana futures listings has strengthened the case for ETF approval. This development addresses some regulatory concerns about market structure.

VanEck has positioned its DTCC listing as a positive step toward launch. However, the listing does not guarantee SEC approval will follow.

The inclusion on DTCC suggests the fund is progressing through regulatory review stages. Final SEC action will determine whether Solana ETFs become available to investors.