Raoul Pal Decodes Why Bitcoin Stands Unshaken Amid Middle East Turmoil

Bitcoin''s immunity to geopolitical chaos just got a masterclass explanation—and Wall Street''s traditional ''safe havens'' should take notes.

The digital gold narrative evolves

While oil and gold spike on Middle East tensions, BTC''s price action stays eerily calm. Pal argues this isn''t indifference—it''s the market recognizing crypto''s decoupling from legacy risk models.

Liquidity trumps missiles

Global capital flows now prioritize monetary policy over conflict zones. When every central bank dances to the same inflation-fighting tune, a finite asset with no sovereign allegiance becomes the ultimate hedge.

The cynical kicker

Traders clinging to 20th-century playbooks are too busy shorting oil futures to notice: the real smart money stopped caring about ''black swan'' events the moment they bought their first satoshi.

TLDR

• Bitcoin remained stable despite military tensions between Israel and Iran.
• Raoul Pal stated that global liquidity is the main driver of Bitcoin’s price.
• His analysis showed that 89 percent of Bitcoin’s movements match changes in global M2 money supply.
• Oil futures rose sharply following reports of an Israeli strike on Iranian energy infrastructure.
• Bitcoin’s price moved only 0.02% during the geopolitical unrest.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show stability despite rising tensions in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran. Recent military strikes on Iranian energy assets sparked concerns across financial markets, but Bitcoin remained almost unchanged, suggesting a limited reaction to geopolitical news.

Raoul Pal, a macro investor, attributes Bitcoin’s stability to global liquidity trends. He claims bitcoin closely follows the global M2 money supply rather than political or military events. According to his analysis, 89% of Bitcoin’s price movements align with liquidity patterns held by banks and institutions.

Keeps trucking along, doing its debasement thing… if 89% of all BTC''s price action is explained by Global Liquidity then by definition almost all "news" and "narrative" is noise. Enjoy your weekend… pic.twitter.com/Z16S9CB9Jy

— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) June 14, 2025

This explains why Bitcoin showed minimal response even after reports of fires at Iran’s South Pars gas field. The Kobeissi Letter confirmed the strike and warned about a potential spike in oil prices. Still, Bitcoin moved just 0.02%, reflecting its alignment with broader monetary factors.

Liquidity Drives Bitcoin, Says Raoul Pal

Pal’s chart shows that BTC reacts more to global liquidity changes than to news or short-term market shocks. The correlation between M2 supply and Bitcoin remains strong over the past three years. This trend has held during global conflicts, interest rate changes, and election periods.

The Kobeissi Letter also highlighted market risks after the Israel-Iran clash, but Bitcoin stayed stable. Meanwhile, oil futures surged over 7%, indicating investor fear in energy markets. Financial firm Alva warned about shipping disruptions, but this had no real effect on Bitcoin pricing.

BREAKING: Iranian media reports that Israel has struck energy facilities in Iran, with a fire reported at the South Pars Gas Field.

Oil prices are set to soar on Monday.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 14, 2025

Pal insists liquidity growth is the primary force behind Bitcoin gains, not daily news developments. He believes only a shift in global money supply WOULD change Bitcoin’s long-term direction. Therefore, Bitcoin’s resilience supports the idea that macroeconomic forces matter more than news-driven volatility.

Central Banks’ Influence BTC Price Direction

Pal’s analysis offers investors a simple framework to understand Bitcoin’s price direction. If global liquidity continues to expand, Bitcoin may see higher prices in the long run. Although short-term movements may occur, the long-term trend relies on monetary policies and liquidity levels.

As tensions rise in the Middle East, Bitcoin’s unshaken position underlines Pal’s thesis. This further strengthens the view that central banks and institutions guide Bitcoin’s overall trajectory. Investors may now focus less on headlines and more on liquidity conditions affecting BTC markets.