Ethereum (ETH) Price: Open Interest Plummets 50% Since August as Traders Await the Big Breakout

Open interest in Ethereum futures just got cut in half. That's a 50% drop since August, and the market's holding its breath.

The Great Wait

Traders aren't just sitting on their hands—they're actively pulling capital off the sidelines. That massive unwind in open interest screams one thing: uncertainty. No one's willing to make a big bet until ETH shows its hand. Is this the calm before the storm, or just more sideways purgatory?

Breakout or Fakeout?

Every chart watcher from here to Wall Street has their lines drawn. Support here, resistance there. The narrative is primed. All it needs is a spark—a catalyst to light the fuse. Until then, capital stays parked, watching and waiting for a clear signal to dive back in or bail for good.

Remember, in traditional finance they call this 'prudent risk management.' In crypto, we just call it being scared to miss the next pump. The smart money's waiting for ETH to make the first move. The question is, which way does it go?

TLDR

• Ethereum open interest has dropped approximately 50% since August, indicating widespread position closures and reduced leverage in the market.
• Binance taker sell volume has fallen to its lowest level since May, showing that aggressive selling pressure has cooled.
• ETH is trading in a range between $2,800 and $3,300, forming a contracting triangle pattern on daily charts.
• The 200-day EMA near $3,410 continues to act as resistance, with repeated rejections keeping the price capped.
• A breakout above $3,200-$3,250 could push ETH toward $4,200, while a break below $2,900 may expose prices to $2,500.

Ethereum is trading in a quieter market environment after months of leverage reduction. Open interest across major exchanges has fallen to roughly half of what it was in August, according to analytics firm Alpharectal.

ETH Open Interest down ~50% since August

Ethereum’s Open Interest today is worth roughly half of what it was in August, signaling a significant reduction in market risk.

This move indicates that institutions and large whales have closed Leveraged ETH positions en masse,… pic.twitter.com/kYfie8h0bR

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) December 21, 2025

Open interest measures the total value of active futures and perpetual contracts. When it rises, leverage builds up in the system. When it falls, traders are closing positions and overall market risk decreases.

Binance currently holds the largest share of ETH open interest at approximately $7.6 billion. Gate.io and HTX follow with $3.72 billion and $3.12 billion respectively. The reduction in leverage often lessens the chance of sudden price swings caused by mass liquidations.

Lower open interest typically limits short-term volatility. However, it can also set the stage for larger price movements once direction becomes clear. Past market cycles have shown similar resets appearing before either further declines or more stable recovery phases.

Selling Pressure Eases on Binance

Data from CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain shows that ethereum taker sell volume on Binance has dropped to its lowest level since May. Taker sell volume tracks how much ETH is being sold at market price, reflecting aggressive selling activity.

The 30-day average has fallen to about $6.3 billion. This suggests fewer traders are rushing to exit positions compared to the recent selloff period. However, it does not indicate that buyers have taken control of price action.

This type of market setup often leads to price stabilization rather than immediate rallies. For a stronger upside case to develop, buyers WOULD need to return with higher volume and rising open interest.

Price Consolidates in Triangle Pattern

The daily chart shows Ethereum stuck in a downtrend marked by lower highs and lower lows. After a sharp drop, the price has moved sideways between roughly $2,800 and $3,300. This range is acting as a decision zone.

According to analyst Dami-Defi, the recent structure suggests that as long as higher lows around $2,900 hold, the uptrend remains technically intact. The $2,990 area currently serves as a pivot point for price action.

$ETH is compressing inside a contracting triangle from late-Nov.

We’ve had two clean rejections at the 200-day EMA, so that’s the key resistance.

As long as higher lows hold ($2.90k area), recent uptrend stays intact.

A daily close above the triangle top ($3.20–$3.25k) and… pic.twitter.com/FlFDwzI2C8

— Dami-Defi (@DamiDefi) December 21, 2025

The 200-day exponential moving average NEAR $3,410 has rejected multiple attempts to break higher. The short-term moving average continues to slope lower and sits above the current price, maintaining pressure on any bounce attempts.

Bollinger Bands have tightened after expanding during the selloff. This typically occurs when volatility fades and the market pauses before its next move. Volume data shows heavy selling during the breakdown, but recent sessions display lighter and mixed volume.

The relative strength index sits slightly below 50 after recovering from oversold levels. This does not confirm a trend change but allows room for a potential rebound. MACD and short-term momentum indicators show a slight positive tilt, while longer-term moving averages remain negative.

Key Levels to Watch

A daily close above the moving average near $3,300-$3,500 with stronger volume and RSI holding above 50 would improve the bullish case. A decisive break above the triangle top near $3,200-$3,250 and the 200-day EMA could target $4,200, according to analyst Merlijn the Trader.

ETHEREUM IS PRESSURING FOR A MOVE.

Price is coiling above key support.
As long as $2,600 holds… pressure keeps building.

First target: $3,100
Then: $3,400+
Above that: Open sky

Volatility incoming.
Move accordingly. pic.twitter.com/nQxIu2Jqnm

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) December 21, 2025

On the downside, a clean break below the $2,800-$3,000 support zone could reopen the path for another selloff. If ETH breaks below the rising support line, it may MOVE toward the mid-$2,500s, which represents the next large historical demand zone.