GE Vernova (GEV) Stock Surges as Analysts Boost Price Target Amid China’s Rare Earth Crackdown

Wall Street wakes up to GEV's supply-chain hustle.

China just tightened the screws on rare earth exports—again. But GE Vernova's stock isn't just weathering the storm; it's riding the wave. Analysts just jacked up price targets, betting big on the firm's scramble to secure alternative sources.

Supply chain chess moves pay off.

While competitors sweat over Beijing's export quotas, GEV's preemptive deals with Australian and Brazilian suppliers are looking prescient. The market's rewarding that foresight with a 12% bump since the restrictions hit.

Energy transition meets realpolitik.

Turbine manufacturers need neodymium like crypto bros need hopium. With China controlling 80% of global rare earth production, GEV's diversification play could become an industry blueprint—or a cautionary tale if the geopolitics get uglier.

Closing thought: Nothing makes analysts upgrade faster than a company that actually prepared for the obvious. Where's the 'disruption' premium now, growth-at-all-costs crowd?

TLDR

• GE Vernova is working with the U.S. government to increase stockpiles of rare earth yttrium after China restricted exports in April 2025
• The company has enough yttrium inventory to last through 2025 and into 2026, though exact timing wasn’t disclosed
• Bank of America raised its price target for GE Vernova stock from $725 to $804 while maintaining a Buy rating
• GE Vernova raised its 2028 guidance with expectations for $52 billion in revenue and 20% EBITDA margin
• The company’s total backlog is projected to reach $200 billion by 2028, up from the current $135 billion

Bank of America Securities lifted its price target on GE Vernova stock to $804 from $725 on Tuesday. The upgrade came after the gas turbine Maker shared updated guidance at its investor day in New York.

GE Vernova Inc., GEV

The new price target represents a $79 increase. BofA maintained its Buy rating on the stock.

GE Vernova raised its 2028 financial targets above what analysts expected. The company now projects $52 billion in revenue with a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028.

Those numbers beat the previous forecast of $45 billion in revenue and a 14% margin. The upgrade marks a 33% upward revision for the year.

The company plans to increase its gas power equipment capacity by roughly 20% by 2028. CEO Scott Strazik shared details about the expansion during the Tuesday event.

GE Vernova expects its total backlog to grow from $135 billion to around $200 billion by 2028. The company also announced plans to double its quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share.

Share repurchase authorization expanded to $10 billion. GE Vernova has already used $3.3 billion of that authorization.

The bank values the stock at 26 times its raised 2027 estimated EBITDA. That multiple comes at a premium to the 14 times peer average on 2026 estimates.

Supply Chain Strategy

Strazik addressed concerns about rare earth yttrium supply during the investor day. China restricted exports of yttrium and six other rare earths in April 2025.

The restrictions came as retaliation for U.S. tariffs. China serves as the main source of yttrium used in specialty alloys and high-temperature coatings.

GE Vernova has yttrium inventories lasting through 2025 and into next year. The company did not specify how far into 2026 those supplies will last.

“We are very focused on it every day,” Strazik said. The CEO confirmed the company is working with the U.S. government to boost stockpiles.

Yttrium shortages have hit multiple industries including aerospace and semiconductors. Prices outside China jumped 4,400% between January and November 2025.

Capacity Expansion Plans

GE Vernova is investing in alternatives to replace certain rare earths if needed. Some replacements come with cost or performance trade-offs.

The company will stay opportunistic about adding to inventory when possible. Strazik said the firm is in good shape for the foreseeable future.

Washington and Beijing agreed to a new regime to speed up rare earth exports. Users across industries still report severe shortages.

GE Vernova is one of only three major makers of gas turbines globally. The company recently secured its first international wind repower contract with Taiwan Power Company.

That deal involves supplying 25 repower upgrade kits and a five-year maintenance agreement. The company expects to generate at least $22 billion in cumulative free cash FLOW from 2025 to 2028, up from an earlier estimate of $14 billion.