Arthur Hayes Predicts 99% Drop for Monad (MON) – The Layer 1 Token’s Brutal Reality Check

Arthur Hayes just threw a grenade into the crypto echo chamber. The BitMEX co-founder isn't mincing words about Monad (MON), forecasting a staggering 99% price collapse for the hyped Layer 1 token. It's a prediction that cuts through the usual bullish noise and forces a hard look at fundamentals.

Why The Sky Is Falling

Hayes isn't basing this on gut feeling. His analysis points to a brutal combination of factors: an oversaturated Layer 1 market, questionable tokenomics, and a launch that might have already priced in all future optimism. The math, for him, is inescapable. When you run the numbers, a 99% correction isn't a scare tactic—it's a statistical probability for projects that fail to deliver unique value.

The Layer 1 Graveyard Is Crowded

Remember 'Ethereum killers'? The landscape is littered with them. Hayes's warning serves as a stark reminder that technological promise alone doesn't guarantee market survival. For every success story, a dozen projects flame out, leaving bagholders and empty Discord servers in their wake. It's the cynical finance truth no one wants to hear during a bull run: most investments fail.

Monad's Uphill Battle

To defy this dire forecast, Monad needs to execute flawlessly. It must attract developers, secure major partnerships, and demonstrate real-world usage that justifies its valuation—fast. The clock is ticking, and the market's patience for pure narrative is wearing thin. Execution, not hype, will be the ultimate judge.

Hayes has drawn a line in the sand. A 99% drop prediction is more than a hot take; it's a direct challenge to Monad's entire thesis. Now, the project has to prove him wrong. The coming months will show whether MON is a foundational Layer 1 or just another line on a tombstone in the crypto graveyard.

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes predicts Monad (MON) could drop 99% and calls it a “high FDV, low-float VC coin”
• Hayes says only Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum will survive long-term among Layer 1 tokens
• Monad co-founder Keone Hon defends the project’s technology but Hayes says weak tokenomics are the real problem
• MON has already fallen 24% and dropped below its $0.0288 launch price on Coinbase
• Two whales lost $3.23 million combined in liquidations on Hyperliquid in the past 24 hours

Monad recently raised $269 million through its Coinbase initial coin offering in record time. The token has become one of the latest projects to generate buzz in the crypto space.

However, Arthur Hayes is not buying the hype. The BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer shared his bearish outlook on MON during a recent Altcoin Daily interview.

Hayes stated that nearly every LAYER 1 token will trend toward zero over time. He made exceptions only for Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum.

He specifically targeted Monad in his analysis. Hayes called MON “another high FDV, low-float VC coin” and predicted it could fall by as much as 99%.

“Monad won’t be able to compete with Ethereum

I have no belief that this is a legitimate blockchain.

It’ll never have any real usage.”

— Arthur Hayes

if you understand network effects, you know Ethereum’s here to stay at the top.

Monad’s solution is simple: build on… pic.twitter.com/EuXpU6VK1N

— rip.eth (@ripeth) November 29, 2025

The token has already declined 24% from recent highs. MON has dropped below its launch price of $0.0288 according to Coinbase data.

Hayes explained that insiders overvalue and tightly control these tokens. He suggested they will likely dump their holdings once locked tokens are released.

He added that the initial pump most tokens experience does not translate into long-term sustainability. On November 25, Hayes announced he WOULD close his position in MON.

Technology vs Tokenomics Debate

Monad co-founder Keone Hon responded to Hayes’ criticism. Hon stated that Monad has launched some of the most innovative technology currently available in the market.

Dear @CryptoHayes , I respect what you have built for the industry. Perps are an amazing innovation that I believe will continue to grow rapidly. You've had a big effect on our industry.

I have seen you commenting on Monad a lot for the past few days. While I'm sure some… https://t.co/TpoC7M7KYP

— Keone Hon (@keoneHD) November 29, 2025

Hayes doubled down on his stance. He argued that the issue has nothing to do with technology but rather weak tokenomics.

Hayes stated clearly that he does not care about the tech. He challenged Hon directly about the token’s structure.

“Tell the community how you will maintain this price level with ~1% monthly inflation driven by staking rewards,” Hayes said.

He added that real usage will drive MON’s value. This becomes especially important as token unlocks occur more frequently over time.

Hayes called on Monad to unlock all of its tokens immediately. He wants the market to MOVE into a true price discovery phase to determine the asset’s real value under bullish conditions.

Some crypto community members pointed out a potential conflict. They noted that Maelstrom holds projects with locked tokens in its own portfolio.

Whale Liquidations Mount

The price decline has triggered a wave of liquidations among large holders. Two whales who were previously in profit reportedly lost a combined $3.23 million in the past 24 hours on Hyperliquid.

Whales control a large portion of market liquidity. Their losses suggest that bearish sentiment remains strong.

The liquidations could push the asset even lower. Retail investors are likely to suffer the most from continued price declines.

MON currently trades below its Coinbase launch price. The token faces pressure from both market conditions and criticism of its tokenomics structure.