Cardano (ADA) Price at Critical Juncture: Long-Term Holders Exit as Multi-Year Support Line Faces Ultimate Test

Cardano's ADA is staring down a make-or-break moment. A critical multi-year support line—the kind traders draw with trembling hands—is under siege. And the cavalry isn't coming; long-term holders are quietly closing their positions, voting with their wallets.

The Exodus of the Faithful

Forget the noise. The real story isn't on the charts; it's in the chain data. The cohort that weathered previous storms—the 'HODLers'—is thinning. This isn't panic selling. It's a calculated retreat, a silent verdict on the current price narrative. When your strongest allies start to leave, you listen.

A Line in the Sand

All eyes are on that multi-year support. It's more than a trendline; it's a psychological battleground. A hold here could spark a relief rally, a final stand for the bullish thesis. A break? That opens the door to uncharted, lower territory. Technicals are clear: this is the level that separates conviction from capitulation.

Market Mechanics in Play

The exit of long-term holders creates a fascinating supply dynamic. Their coins, once locked away, are now potential sell-side pressure. The market must absorb this without cracking support—a tough ask in a climate where liquidity is a premium commodity, not a given.

The Bull Case in the Balance

Cardano's fundamentals—its research-driven approach, scaling roadmap, developer activity—haven't vanished. But in the short term, price is a brutal truth-teller. The network's value proposition is now colliding head-on with market mechanics and sentiment. This test isn't about technology; it's about market structure and pure price discovery.

A decisive moment for ADA. The multi-year support line is the last bastion. A hold could be legendary, the foundation for the next leg. A failure would be a stark reminder that in crypto, even the best-laid smart contracts can't override a classic chart breakdown. Sometimes, the market's message is simple: price pays, promises don't. Now, we see if the line holds.

TLDR

• Cardano is trading near $0.41, testing a multi-year ascending support trendline that has held since 2020
• Data shows a 23% increase in older ADA coins being spent, with 114.66 million coins moved to exchanges by long-term holders
• Analysts are divided on outlook, with some predicting 10X potential to $3.00 and others warning of a drop to $0.30 or lower
• Key support levels sit at $0.37-$0.41 and $0.30, while resistance levels are at $0.46-$0.50 and $0.62
• A confirmed breakdown below the multi-year trendline could trigger further declines into 2026

Cardano is trading NEAR $0.41, hovering just above a multi-year support trendline that has anchored every major cycle bottom since 2020. The price action has traders watching closely to see if ADA can hold or if a breakdown is coming.

The current level represents the first retest of this trendline in over four years. Historically, this zone has sparked major reversals for ADA.

However, the retest is happening alongside weakening market structure. Volume profile data shows price gravitating toward a deeper liquidity zone near $0.30.

On-chain data reveals that long-term holders are moving their coins. The Spent Coins Age Band metric shows a 23% increase in older ADA being spent over the past week.

This increase brought the total to 114.66 million coins. The movement suggests experienced holders may be exiting their positions.

Chart analysis from trader Sssebi shows ADA tapping its multi-year support zone for the first time since 2020. Jesse Peralta’s chart indicates that ADA may have already broken a major intermediate support level.

$ADA hits multi year support level.

The next MOVE could determine $ADA's future. pic.twitter.com/ZSr38T2Ljl

— Sssebi(@Sssebi) December 1, 2025

Market Sentiment Shows Wide Split

The drop has accelerated into the $0.41-$0.37 region. This breakdown aligns with weakening volume levels across exchanges.

Analyst Smith maintains a bullish view, arguing that ADA still holds “10X potential” with a cycle target above $3.00. He views the recent selloff as a discount accumulation phase.

CryptoMindset issued a contrasting forecast, warning of a potential collapse in 2026. This bearish outlook suggests ADA could revisit 2018-level prices if it loses long-term trendline support.

Ali Martinez has pointed to the TD Sequential indicator showing a potential buy signal. This technical signal suggests the current downtrend could be losing momentum.

TD Sequential flashes a buy signal for Cardano $ADA. pic.twitter.com/qlIxSXpkaa

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 1, 2025

Key Levels to Watch

Support levels for cardano now sit at $0.37-$0.41 for the current zone. The $0.30 level represents a major liquidity pocket where strong bounce potential exists.

The multi-year trendline serves as the last structural defense for long-term holders. A break below this level WOULD change the technical outlook.

Resistance levels begin at $0.46-$0.50, which would serve as the first bullish confirmation zone. The $0.62 level represents mid-range resistance and a higher-timeframe breaker.

A move back above $1.00 would signal long-term recovery if cycle strength returns. Short-term price action remains confined to the current support zone.

If ADA stabilizes above the multi-year trendline, a bounce could retest resistance at $0.46-$0.50. A decisive break of the trendline may open the door to new cycle lows.

Community traders remain split on the outlook. Optimists point to ADA’s historical ability to recover from DEEP corrections.

Critics argue that market conditions and fundamentals could drag price lower. The 24-hour trading action has renewed concerns as ADA tests this structural zone.

Price continues to face downward pressure with rising volatility. All eyes are on whether Cardano can defend its long-term trendline in the coming sessions.