Peter Brandt’s Bold Bitcoin Forecast: $250k Rally Looms After Potential 75% Correction

Veteran trader Peter Brandt just threw a volatility bomb into the crypto space. His latest prediction? Bitcoin could soar to a staggering quarter-million dollars—but not before potentially getting cut in half, then halved again.

The Path to a Quarter-Million

Forget smooth sailing. Brandt's roadmap to a six-figure Bitcoin is paved with extreme turbulence. The call for a massive rally is paired with a stark warning of a gut-wrenching correction first. It's the ultimate high-risk, high-reward narrative for the digital gold rush.

Embracing the Rollercoaster

This isn't analysis for the faint of heart. It's a thesis built on historical boom-bust cycles, suggesting that the road to mainstream adoption is never a straight line. The prediction forces a brutal question: could you stomach losing three-quarters of your portfolio's value on the way to generational wealth?

For institutions and retail traders alike, the forecast serves as a stark reminder—crypto markets don't do moderation. They specialize in making and breaking fortunes, often treating your portfolio like a casino's house edge. The real trick isn't just predicting the peak; it's surviving the valley on the way there.

TLDR

• Peter Brandt says Bitcoin broke its parabolic trendline in early November 2025.

• He warns BTC may fall 75 percent, as in all five prior bull cycles.

• BTC dropped below $90,000 on Dec 1, with $725 million in long liquidations.

• Analyst van de Poppe says bull cycle remains intact despite sharp pullback.

Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $90,000 level has raised concerns about a deeper correction. Market veteran Peter Brandt has suggested that this fall could signal a much larger decline. According to him, historical data shows that each time Bitcoin broke its parabolic uptrend, the market experienced a crash of 75% or more.

Brandt explained that bitcoin has followed this pattern through all five of its previous bull market cycles. The drop below the parabolic trendline, which had guided BTC’s rise from the 2022 lows, was identified by Brandt as a crucial signal.

“There have been five major bull market cycles in $BTC since inception… violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by a 75%-plus correction — NO EXCEPTIONS,” Brandt posted on X.

Bitcoin Trendline Break Could Point to Deeper Losses

Peter Brandt noted that the dominant parabolic trend began following Bitcoin’s recovery after the FTX crash in late 2022. Bitcoin had moved steadily above that line until recent price weakness led to a break early last month. According to Brandt, this break typically precedes a prolonged correction.

Historical data supports his position. In 2011, Bitcoin fell 86% after losing its trendline. In 2013, BTC dropped 80%. In 2017 and 2021, the declines reached 77% and 74.2% respectively. Brandt argues that if Bitcoin follows the same trajectory from a recent peak of $103,000, the price could fall to around $25,750.

Source: X

Brandt also repeated a broader theory that he calls exponential decay. He said that each Bitcoin bull run has shown lower momentum than the one before, and that gains at the top of each cycle have slowed over time.

“The history of Bitcoin bull market cycles has been a history of exponential decay. Agree with it or not, you will have to deal with it. Should the current decline carry to $50k, the next bull market cycle should carry to $200k to $250K.”

Brandt said that falling to $50,000 WOULD not end the long‑range upside. Instead, he said that the next cycle peak could reach $200,000 to $250,000, yet only after a deep correction. In his earlier post, he noted:

“You better have a great reason to bet against this pattern,” he warned.

Analysts Split on BTC Market Outlook

While Brandt remains cautious, other analysts see the recent dip as a standard pullback rather than a cycle-ending event. Michaël van de Poppe said the overall bull cycle still appears to be in progress. He cited low retail activity and the absence of extreme market conditions.

Van de Poppe believes that Bitcoin could retest the $90,000 to $94,000 range and possibly push higher. He said that no indicators currently suggest a final peak has been reached. This view contrasts with Brandt’s position but reflects ongoing debate among market participants.

Benjamin Cowen also pointed to historical similarities with the 2019 cycle. He noted that ALT/BTC pairs may follow a delayed pattern even after Bitcoin tops out. Cowen added that a quick altcoin rally may not follow and warned that further declines in ALT/BTC pairs could occur.

Liquidations and Macro Factors Add Pressure

Bitcoin’s sharp fall came as over $725 million in long positions were liquidated in 24 hours. Market data suggests that a combination of low trading volume and heavy leverage contributed to the steep decline. Some observers linked the price MOVE to currency shifts, including the Japanese yen spike.

The price of Bitcoin had reached as high as $103,000 before the recent correction. The latest drop below $90,000 has put the asset at a key support zone. Traders are now watching closely to see if the market continues downward or begins to recover.

Brandt maintained his stance despite other views. He acknowledged that at some point the pattern may change but said he would not bet against it without clear evidence.

“No doubt this cycle will change at some point, but not betting against it until there is a proven change,” he said.