Palantir (PLTR) Stock: The Dark Horse Racing Toward the Trillion-Dollar Club?

Big data's shadowy champion is knocking on the trillion-dollar door—but can it pick the lock?

Silicon Valley's most controversial data miner has Wall Street buzzing again. Palantir's stock charts look like a crypto trader's dream, but is this surge sustainable or just another tech bubble waiting to pop?

The AI gold rush fuels Palantir's ascent

Government contracts keep stacking up while commercial clients bite—hard. That Gotham-style war room aesthetic suddenly looks less like theater and more like foresight.

Trillion-dollar math doesn't add up... yet

Even bulls whisper doubts between sips of $8 cold brew. At current valuations, PLTR would need to out-execute every FAANG stock during their prime growth years. Possible? Maybe. Probable? Ask the analysts who missed Bitcoin at $100.

One thing's certain: in a market that rewards surveillance capitalism, Palantir's black boxes shine brighter than a VC's patent leather shoes. Just don't look too closely at the 'proprietary algorithms'—your pension fund already did.

TLDR

• Palantir’s market cap sits at $394 billion, requiring a 145% stock increase to reach the trillion-dollar club that includes 10 companies led by Nvidia at $4.6 trillion.
• Third-quarter revenue jumped 63% year-over-year to $1.18 billion, with US commercial revenue surging 121% and government revenue up 52%.
• The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 112 and forward P/E of 237, pricing in extremely high growth expectations after a 2,000% rally since ChatGPT’s release.
• Hiring patterns show Palantir shifting from software development to operational deployment, with job postings for developers dropping while operations roles increased 13%.
• Adjusted operating income reached $600.5 million in Q3 with a 51% margin, while R&D spending declined from 18% to 12.2% of revenue.

Palantir Technologies has climbed to a $394 billion market cap. The question now is whether it can become the next AI company to hit $1 trillion.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

The data analytics firm WOULD need its stock price to jump another 145% to reach that milestone. That’s a tall ask considering the rally it’s already experienced.

Recent Performance Shows Strong Growth

The company’s Q3 results painted a picture of accelerating momentum. Total revenue hit $1.18 billion, up 63% year-over-year.

US commercial revenue grew 121% to $397 million. Government revenue climbed 52% to $486 million.

Palantir closed 204 deals worth at least $1 million. The company reported 91 deals over $5 million and 53 exceeding $10 million.

Adjusted free cash FLOW reached $540 million with a 46% margin. Total contract value for the quarter came in at $2.8 billion, up 151% year-over-year.

The company’s software platforms—Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo—continue gaining traction. Foundry helps commercial businesses organize messy data across systems.

Gotham serves government agencies and defense contractors. Apollo handles the distribution infrastructure across cloud and on-premise environments.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.21 for the quarter.

Valuation Concerns Mount Despite Profitability Gains

The stock’s valuation metrics are raising eyebrows. Palantir trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 112.

Its forward price-to-earnings multiple sits at 237. These numbers are extreme even by high-growth software standards.

The company’s market cap has ballooned from $12 billion before ChatGPT’s release. That represents a roughly 2,000% gain in just a couple years.

Hiring trends reveal an interesting shift in the business. Job postings for software developers peaked at 250 in October 2024.

They’ve since fallen to around 150. Meanwhile, roles focused on deploying and using the software increased 13%.

This pattern suggests Palantir is moving from heavy development into deployment. That transition typically means better margins and profitability.

The numbers back this up. Adjusted operating income jumped to $600.5 million in Q3 from $275.5 million a year earlier.

Operating margins expanded to 51% from 38%. Research and development spending dropped from 18% of revenue in 2024 to 12.2% in Q3 2025.

The company’s trailing P/E ratio stands at 444. That’s down from a peak of 600 earlier in the year.

But it’s still far above tech peers. Palantir would need profits to increase nearly 4.5 times to match Apple’s post-2001 peak P/E of 100.

Only three of 16 Wall Street analysts covering the stock rate it a buy. The primary concern remains valuation.

The trillion-dollar club currently includes 10 companies. Nvidia leads at $4.6 trillion, followed by Apple at $4.0 trillion and Microsoft at $3.8 trillion.

Other members include Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tesla, and Berkshire Hathaway. The estimated addressable market for AI software reaches $13 trillion.

US commercial remaining deal value grew 199% year-over-year to $3.6 billion. The company recorded its highest-ever quarter of US commercial total contract value at $1.3 billion, up 342% year-over-year.