Fidelity’s Bombshell Prediction: Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Could Hit 8.3M by 2032

Bitcoin's scarcity engine just got a major credibility boost from one of finance's heavyweights.

The Illiquidity Tipping Point

Fidelity's analysis suggests nearly 8.3 million BTC could exit circulation within seven years—that's more coins going dormant than most altcoins' entire market caps. Institutional adoption meets diamond-handed hodlers in a perfect storm of supply shock.

The Institutional Vault Effect

BlackRock's ETFs, MicroStrategy's treasury gambit, and sovereign wealth funds' creeping allocations are creating a structural deficit that makes traditional commodity squeezes look tame. Meanwhile, retail investors keep stacking sats like there's no tomorrow—which, for fiat currencies, might not be far from truth.

Price Physics Gets Weird

Basic economics suggests that when available supply shrinks while demand grows, something's gotta give. With Bitcoin's inflation rate already below most central bank targets, we're witnessing monetary evolution in real-time—though Wall Street still thinks 'illiquid' means their morning orange juice hasn't been freshly squeezed.

Wake-up call for portfolio managers still measuring risk in basis points while the foundation of money itself gets rewritten. The real question isn't whether Bitcoin will moon—it's whether traditional finance will even recognize the rocket ship leaving without them.

Fidelity identifies key holders

In its latest report, Fidelity analyzed two main groups:

Wallets that have held Bitcoin for at least seven years, and publicly traded companies with a minimum of 1,000 BTC.

The firm defined ‘illiquid’ supply as coins held by these groups, whose balances have consistently increased almost every quarter over the last four years.

Fidelity stated:

“We estimate that this combined group will hold over six million bitcoin by the end of 2025 — or over 28% of the 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.”

Data from Bitbo confirms that public companies currently hold more than 969,000 BTC, about 4.6% of bitcoin’s total supply.

To see a database of such holdings, visit the bitcoin treasuries tracker.

Growth in long-term holding

Long-term holders—wallets with coins unmoved for over seven years—have not seen any net outflows since 2016, according to Fidelity.

Publicly traded companies have also largely retained their bitcoin, with only one quarter of net selling since 2022.

With 105 public companies now holding bitcoin, this institutional cohort may expand further.

Implications for market supply

Fidelity projects that if current accumulation trends persist, 8.3 million BTC could be illiquid by Q2 2032.

The report notes that this tightening supply could impact market dynamics, especially as the circulating supply reached approximately 19.8 million BTC at the close of Q2 2025.

Risks from whale sell-offs

Despite the growth in illiquid supply, the report by Fidelity highlights potential risks if large holders, or ‘whales,’ choose to sell.

In the last 30 days, whales have reportedly sold nearly $12.7 billion in bitcoin, marking the largest sell-off since mid-2022.