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Gold Rockets Toward $3,360 as Dismal Jobs Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut Frenzy

Gold Rockets Toward $3,360 as Dismal Jobs Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut Frenzy

Published:
2025-08-04 10:53:09
16
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Gold's rally just got jet fuel—weak employment numbers have traders betting the Fed will slash rates, sending the yellow metal soaring.


The Jobs Data That Broke the Camel's Back

Another soggy jobs report hits the wires, and suddenly everyone's piling into gold like it's 2008 again. The metal's surge isn't just a safe-haven play—it's a screaming bet against the Fed's ability to keep rates elevated.


Traders Front-Run the Fed

Wall Street's already pricing in cuts before Jerome Powell even finishes his morning coffee. Gold's breakout suggests the market thinks the central bank's 'higher for longer' mantra was just wishful thinking.


The Cynic's Corner

Funny how gold—the asset that pays no yield—becomes everyone's darling the moment the economy sneezes. Maybe those 'barbarous relic' jokes don't land so well when fiat currencies start looking shaky.

XAU/USD long-term weekly chart showing gold's massive rally to current levels

XAU/USD long-term weekly chart showing gold’s massive rally to current levels – Source: TradingView

gold bars

Source: Watcher Guru

Employment Miss Actually Sparks Gold Rally

The July jobs report delivered some pretty shocking results that immediately impacted gold price after jobs data was released on Friday. US nonfarm payrolls added only 73,000 positions, which fell well short of what consensus estimates were calling for. Along with that, previous months faced massive revisions, with June getting slashed from 147,000 down to just 14,000 jobs and May cut from 139,000 to 19,000.

This labor market weakness has strengthened the Fed rate cut outlook significantly. Traders are now pricing in an 81% probability of September easing according to CME FedWatch data. The unemployment rate actually climbed to 4.2% from 4.1%, as more Americans entered the workforce but couldn’t secure employment.

Fed Discord Fuels Rate Cut Speculation

The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting revealed some unprecedented internal disagreement that’s affecting the gold market forecast. For the first time since 1993, two Fed governors formally dissented from the majority’s decision to hold rates at 4.25%-4.5%. This split adds even more weight to XAU/USD technical analysis that’s pointing toward continued strength.

Current XAU/USD daily price chart

Current XAU/USD daily price chart – Source: TradingView

Gold price after jobs data remains supported by this monetary policy uncertainty. The dissenting governors actually favored immediate cuts, which suggests growing pressure within the central bank to begin easing. US nonfarm payrolls weakness provides additional justification for some dovish policy shifts going forward.

Technical Outlook Remains Pretty Bullish

XAU/USD technical analysis indicates that gold is consolidating NEAR $3,360 resistance after Friday’s impressive 2.2% surge. The precious metal maintains a solid 2.5% weekly gain despite Monday’s pause. Fed rate cut outlook improvements continue supporting bullion’s upward trajectory at the time of writing.

The gold market forecast remains constructive given multiple supportive factors that are in play right now. Lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets, while economic uncertainty drives safe-haven demand. Political tensions and trade concerns also benefit precious metals positioning.

Current market dynamics suggest that gold price after jobs data weakness could extend gains even further. US nonfarm payrolls disappointment reinforces the Fed rate cut outlook for September. XAU/USD technical analysis points to potential breakouts above current resistance levels as the gold market forecast turns increasingly bullish on monetary easing expectations.

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