US Economy in Recession? War or Peace, the Numbers Don’t Lie

The US economy is flashing red—recession signals are screaming louder than a crypto trader during a flash crash.

Numbers don’t care about politics. GDP contraction, spiking unemployment, and consumer spending in freefall—no amount of government spin can sugarcoat this. The Fed’s ‘soft landing’ fantasy? Crashed and burned.

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s still betting on a miracle. Because nothing says ‘rational market’ like doubling down on hopium.

US Economy In Recession, Stats Confirm

Per the recent update by the Kobeissi Letter on X, the US economy is showing signs of early recession. A leading recession indicator known as the Conference Board Leading Economic Index has now fallen by 0.1% in May. The index has posted its sixth decline on a monthly basis, spreading ominous fears of recession in the space.

Moreover, this index has plunged 37 out of 39 months. This development is indicating how the US economy is now slowly entering into a phase of recession and economic decay.

.

In addition to this, further stats reveal how the index has dropped by an annualized 5%, indicating a looming recession crisis over the US economy. The index is down 16%, reaching its lowest level in almost 9 years.

Leading US economic indicators are still signaling a recession:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell- 0.1% MoM in May, posting its 6th straight monthly decline.

This index has declined in 37 out of the last 39 months, one of the worst streaks on record.

The… pic.twitter.com/yDxNR4ZuBK

What Does the Index Indicate?

The LEI index is an economic forecast tool, an index that tracks the US’s future economic growth. The index combines 10 economic markers, such as jobless claims, stock prices, weekly hours in manufacturing, and building permits for new houses, to predict the future trajectory of an economy.

A sustained decline in this index often signals an impending recession. A rising LEI, on the other hand, signals that the economic prosperity is at its peak, growing rapidly with each passing day.