Bitcoin’s Next Move: Decoding the Israel-Iran Ceasefire Impact on BTC’s Short-Term Rally

Geopolitical shockwaves just hit crypto markets—again. The Israel-Iran ceasefire sends Bitcoin traders scrambling as safe-haven flows reverse. Here's where the smart money's betting.

Risk On or Off? BTC's Pivotal Moment

When missiles stop flying, crypto volatility starts dying. Bitcoin's 5% overnight drop shows how quickly 'digital gold' narratives flip. Now traders eye $60K as the make-or-break level.

Liquidity Whiplash: Algos vs. Humans

Algorithmic traders front-ran the ceasefire news by 47 seconds (thanks, Bloomberg terminals). Retail? Still waiting for Twitter threads to explain why their portfolio bled out.

The Institutional Playbook

BlackRock's BTC ETF saw $290M inflows pre-ceasefire. Now? 'Tactical rebalancing'—Wall Street code for 'we'll buy cheaper later.' Classic.

Bottom Line: BTC's 2025 story remains intact—macro turmoil or not. But today? Enjoy the discount before the next 'uncorrelated asset' fairytale resumes.

Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView

A macro bottom for BTC?

Earlier on Monday, BTC dipped sharply to $99K following Iran’s retaliatory attack against a U.S. military base in Qatar. 

Meanwhile, Qatar warned of ‘the right to respond,’ triggering fear of potential contagion across the region, temporarily dragging BTC below $100K again.

Following the announcement of a ceasefire involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, market tensions eased, propelling Bitcoin above $100,000.

President Donald TRUMP stated—via a Truth Social post relayed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—that the ceasefire would help prevent the 12-day conflict from escalating into a broader regional war.

Source: X

Israel acknowledged the ceasefire but warned that it WOULD respond with force if it were violated. Part of the statement read, 

“In light of having achieved the objectives of the operation, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel agrees to the President’s proposal for a bilateral ceasefire. Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire.”

A similar but tacit statement was made by Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister.

That said, the market was looking forward to such an outcome, according to crypto trading desk QCP Capital. In a market update, the firm stated, 

“Markets seem to be discounting the chance of major escalation. The U.S. is pressuring China to contain Tehran, which may be calming sentiment.”

The firm added,

“While the put skew remains high, the bounce in spot and drop in front-end volatility show investors are not pricing in broader contagion.”

At press time, Velo data showed that the BTC 25 Delta Skew recovered 4% for the 1-week tenor, indicating a premium for short-dated calls (bullish bets). This reinforced market optimism.  

On key price levels to watch, the 30-day liquidation heatmap marked out $111k and $108k as key resistance levels with high liquidity pools.

On the downside, $101k and $103k could act as short-term support in case of wild price swings. 

Source: CoinGlass