Apple’s 2025 Make-or-Break Moment: 3 Factors That’ll Send AAPL Soaring or Crashing

Wall Street’s favorite fruit stock faces a trillion-dollar crossroads. Again.

The China gamble: Can Cook’s supply chain ballet dodge geopolitical landmines and iPhone bans?

Vision Pro’s reality check: Will ’spatial computing’ justify its kidney-pricing—or join the Metaverse graveyard?

Services squeeze: With regulators circling Apple Pay and App Store fees, can recurring revenue offset hardware fatigue?

Bonus cynicism: If Tim Cook launches another ’revolutionary’ $1,000 monitor stand this year, bulls might finally lose faith.

US Tariffs

The most obvious make-or-break factor for Apple, and most tech giants, is the future of US tariffs. Currently, there is a mass pause on tariffs with a 10% baseline. However, Apple Inc. has already taken several precautions to protect itself from tariffs.

Indeed, the iPhone Maker says that it plans to begin sourcing all US iPhones from India, pivoting away from previously sourcing them from China. It also flew in hundreds of tons of iPhones to the US to ensure enough supply in case tariffs made developing iPhones abroad too costly.

iPhone Revenue

Additionally, iPhone revenue continues to be the biggest driver of Apple’s financial results. Experts project a seasonal decline from the December quarter, which benefits from a new product release and the holiday season. On the other hand, there should be modest year-over-year growth for iPhone revenue in the March quarter, as well as profits from other Apple products and services.

Apple’s Growth of Services

Speaking of services, the growth of Apple services should also be reflected in the upcoming earnings report. Services revenue is Apple’s next biggest driver after iPhones. Experts predict a continuation of strong double-digit growth in the March quarter, with Apple continuing the development of its services.