J.P. Morgan warns Amazon shares face immediate pressure from macro headwinds and rising fuel costs, potentially driving a 10% correction, even as the firm raises its long-term price target to $280. Analyst Doug Anmuth maintained his buy rating, citing AWS expansion and surging AI demand as key catalysts for 2026, despite the stock's recent 1.61% monthly decline to $209.77.

Amazon Stock Forecast 2026 Driven by AWS Growth and AI Demand

Anmuth revised his AWS growth estimates upward by roughly 2–3% through 2026 and more than 4% for 2027, now projecting quarterly expansion of 28–30% across the year. He attributes the upgrade to traditional enterprise workloads moving to the cloud and a steady rise in AI adoption — the same combination that also drives most of the broader AWS growth and AI demand conversation on Wall Street right now.

A $138 billion, eight-year AWS partnership with OpenAI sits at the center of his revised model. Anmuth also projects the AWS backlog to grow by $100 billion quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, a figure that reflects committed, long-term customer spending and not just near-term momentum. He also notes that AWS demand currently outpaces supply, and that Amazon actively scales infrastructure and AI chips to close that gap.

Doug Anmuth, J.P. Morgan analyst, stated:

The Amazon AI investment impact also draws attention well beyond J.P. Morgan. Bank of America analyst Justin Post kept his Buy rating with a $303 price target. He is pointing to reports that Amazon may put more than $10 billion directly into OpenAI — a move he thinks could shift more AI workloads onto AWS and showcase the strength of Amazon’s in-house chips. Out of 67 sell-side analysts covering AMZN right now, 96% rate it a Strong Buy or Buy. There’s an average price target around $295 — roughly 27% above current levels.

Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney also named Amazon a top pick for 2026. He had this to say:

The AMZN price target J.P. Morgan put out already prices in the uglier bits. We are talking about $125 million in fuel costs hitting Q1, plus the drag from Amazon Leo, quick commerce, and international expansion. Anmuth sees it clearing. Robotics deployment, same-day delivery, ad revenue, and inventory optimization in North America are all expected to push margins up through mid-2026.

The Amazon stock price prediction lives or dies on AWS momentum and enterprise AI demand. Heading into H2, the vast majority of analysts covering the stock think the setup looks good.