NEW YORK, April 6, 2026 - Fresh economic models warn that sustained oil prices above $115 per barrel could propel the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.7%, reigniting inflation fears as crude trades violently at $111. The spike, driven by the prolonged US-Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, signals a degrading global order and poses a direct threat to monetary stability.

Oil Price Above $115 May Spark Inflation

The prolonged war between the US and Iran is now on the verge of significantly impacting the world economies. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price fluctuations are becoming more violent by the day, fueling fears of inflation rising above the radar. Per the latest post by the Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have earlier touched the $115 mark. If oil prices remain elevated for the next 7 weeks, it may push the CPI inflation markers, triggering it to hit 3.7%. This development may put the US inflation at a higher rate, pushing its economy back to September 2023 levels.

Moreover, since the war, Americans have spent an additional $240M on fuel, with an increased spending of $8.6B due to this ongoing war. The KL post outlines how the extension of this war may trigger an inflation crisis if it’s not put an end to any time soon.

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Oil prices are now crossing above $115/barrel in the US.

As a result, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another ~7 weeks, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.7%.

This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023.

Amid the surge,…

Oil Price Cooling?

Per the latest WG post, the oil prices have slightly calmed a bit, dropping to hit $111 at press time. This particular drop has been noted due to reports of the US and Iran potentially discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire to this ongoing war that they both are embroiled in. This closure, if put into effect, may end the month-long war crisis, giving time for the markets to cool down and recover at their own pace.

JUST IN: Brent crude oil falls after reports the US and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could permanently end the war. pic.twitter.com/fn5mkwwFKp