Microsoft Faces CMA Probe: Could This Trigger a 10% MSFT Stock Correction?

The UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has launched a formal antitrust investigation into Microsoft's enterprise software dominance, warning that the probe could trigger an immediate 10% correction in MSFT stock. The regulator is examining whether Azure, Office, and Copilot licensing practices unfairly stifle competition, specifically targeting terms that make running Windows Server or SQL Server on rival clouds like AWS prohibitively expensive. Microsoft President Brad Smith has pledged full cooperation as the investigation puts the company's core software bundling strategies under unprecedented legal scrutiny.

Will Regulatory Scrutiny Bring Microsoft’s Stock Price Down? (MSFT)

Regulatory scrutiny is nothing new for Microsoft, and the company has faced several hurdles for decades. However, the CMA probe comes at the wrong time, when MSFT stock just recorded its worst quarter since 2008. This can be a wall of worry for investors, as it coincides with an already ‘south heading’ Microsoft stock.

Since Smith agreed to fully cooperate with the CMA probe, the voluntary concessions will likely avoid heavy fines or structural breakups. This is the exact move they took during the recent cloud egress fees, and they have been successful at it. Watcher Guru projects that the CMA probe will not impact Microsoft’s stock price prospects.

Watcher Guru’s Take on the CMA Probe

Watcher Guru concludes that Microsoft stock will not be affected by the ongoing CMA probe. The probe usually takes around 9 months to complete and is not an immediate danger to MSFT. It cannot hamper the company’s $30 billion quarterly cloud revenues, and the tech titan will be operating business as usual. This is still a great buying opportunity as it faces its worst quarter since 2008. Here’s why Watcher Guru gave a buy call for MSFT stock in March.