December’s 73% Gain Streak: Will US Markets Deliver Again in 2025?

Wall Street's favorite month is back—and the stats don't lie.

December has historically been a gift for US equity investors, posting gains a staggering 73% of the time. That's not seasonal cheer; that's a statistical edge. As the calendar flips to the final month of 2025, the big question isn't about holiday spirit, but cold, hard performance: will history repeat?

The Ghost of Decembers Past

The pattern is too consistent to ignore. While past performance is the favorite disclaimer of every fund manager scrambling to justify their fees, a 73% hit rate demands attention. It speaks to year-end portfolio adjustments, institutional window dressing, and a collective market mood that often tilts optimistic before the New Year's hangover sets in.

2025's Unfinished Business

This year enters December with its own unique baggage. The macroeconomic script has been rewritten multiple times—inflation scares, geopolitical tremors, and the relentless drumbeat of tech innovation. The market isn't operating in a vacuum; it's reacting to a real-time experiment in global finance. Will the usual seasonal forces be enough to override the year's accumulated volatility?

One thing's certain: traders aren't just betting on Santa. They're weighing algorithms against anecdotes, liquidity against sentiment. In a world where traditional finance often moves with the speed of a regulatory filing, the market's December dance is a fascinating test of pattern recognition versus present reality.

So, will 2025 join the winning 73%? The data suggests a bullish bias, but the market, in its infinite wisdom—and occasional absurdity—always gets the final say. Place your bets, but maybe keep one eye on the exit. After all, Wall Street's version of 'season's greetings' often comes with a carefully hidden fee.

US Markets: Bullish December Calls Gain Momentum

According to a latest post by the Kobeissi Letter, US markets are now hoping to have a stellar December, as historic data often signals December to be the best month for the stock market rallies. Per the KL post, December has been a strong month for stock markets in general. The KL post adds how the S&P 500 has delivered nearly 73% gains in December since 1928. Moreover, only 26 out of 97 years have faced negative returns. The markets are now once again anticipating a bullish December, resulting in stunning gains for their investors.

December is a historically strong month for stocks:

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 73.2% of the time in December, the highest win rate of any month.

In other words, only 26 of the last 97 years have seen negative returns.

Over this period, the index has returned an average… pic.twitter.com/HXZPjCejqd

Risk Trading Is At An All-Time High

According to another leading post by the Kobeissi letter, investors’ appetite for exploring risk assets has been incredibly strong. Per the KL post, options trading is volume in loss-making; Russell 2000 stocks have risen to 6 million contracts a day, signaling new interest.

Appetite for risk is incredibly strong:

Options trading volumes in loss-making Russell 2000 stocks have risen to ~6 million contracts per day, an all-time high.

Volumes have more than doubled since April and surpassed the previous record set during the 2021 meme-stock mania.… pic.twitter.com/pV9mpDvGsZ