Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run Will Outlast Fed Rate Cuts

Bitcoin's bull cycle isn't just surviving Fed policy shifts—it's thriving despite them.

Hayes' Bold Forecast

While traditional markets obsess over every basis point cut from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin's momentum builds independently. The original cryptocurrency operates on its own economic logic—decentralized, global, and frankly uninterested in central bank theatrics.

Decoupling From Traditional Finance

This isn't about ignoring macro trends; it's about recognizing that crypto markets now move to their own rhythm. Liquidity flows through DeFi protocols, not just bank windows. Investors seek returns in staking yields, not just savings accounts paying less than inflation—because who doesn't love earning negative real returns while bankers collect bonuses?

The Fed's diminishing influence signals a broader shift: digital assets aren't just an alternative investment; they're becoming the main event.

Arthur Hayes Sees the Bull Cycle Extending to 2026

According to Hayes, we’re not at the end of the bull market. In fact, he believes bitcoin is still in the middle of this cycle. His bold prediction: the bull cycle could stretch into 2026. The reason lies with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Hayes argues that rate cuts by the Fed will inject fresh liquidity into markets, and much of it will flow into BTC. He also sees political pressure mounting on the Fed to ease monetary policy, which could further fuel the rally. For Hayes, more money printing is inevitable—and every dollar created makes Bitcoin more valuable due to its fixed supply.

FED Policy and the Path of BTC

The Federal Reserve plays a starring role in Hayes’ outlook. He expects a series of rate cuts beginning soon, possibly lasting until mid-2026. Lower rates mean cheaper credit, more money sloshing around the system, and ultimately, a surge of capital into risk assets like Bitcoin. Hayes believes this liquidity wave could push BTC far higher than skeptics think. Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin has a capped supply, making it a natural hedge against endless printing. In his view, the macro environment, not short-term charts, will decide when this bull run ends. That’s why he continues to see upside for BTC even as some traders call for a peak.

Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin’s “Limbo” Against Gold and Stocks

Some critics argue that Bitcoin looks weak compared to the S&P 500 and gold, both of which hit record highs recently. Hayes disagrees. He calls this a flawed way of thinking, noting that BTC has crushed every other asset when measured over the long run. For example, deflating stocks by Gold shows they still haven’t recovered fully from the 2008 crash. But when you compare them to Bitcoin, the difference is off the charts. Hayes says BTC’s performance is “so ridiculous” that it dwarfs everything else. Today, Bitcoin may feel stuck in limbo under its $124,000 peak, but Hayes insists the bigger picture proves BTC’s unmatched strength.

The Road Ahead: Bull Cycle Momentum Builds

Looking forward, Hayes sees little reason to panic. Bitcoin’s sideways moves are normal in the middle of a bull cycle. With the Fed preparing to cut rates, governments ready to print, and global liquidity rising, the setup is bullish for BTC. Hayes even suggests the current frustrations are only temporary pauses before the next surge. He has projected Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end if conditions align. Whether that bold target hits or not, his main point stands: patience pays in crypto. The real winners will be those who hold through the noise, not those who expect instant Lamborghinis.