The Trade Desk Stock Crash 2025: Amazon-Netflix Partnership Shakes Ad Tech Giant

• Why Did The Trade Desk Stock Plunge 12% on September 10, 2025?
• How Amazon-Netflix Deal Threatens The Trade Desk’s Survival
• Q3 Earnings Preview: Can The Trade Desk Rally Before 2025 Ends?
• FAQ: The Trade Desk’s Make-or-Break Moment

The Trade Desk (TTD), once the darling of independent ad tech, is facing its worst crisis yet. A double whammy of analyst downgrades and a seismic Amazon-Netflix advertising alliance has erased 12% of its value in a single day—exposing existential threats to its "walled garden alternative" business model. With Q3 growth projections slashed to 14% and Morgan Stanley sounding the alarm, investors are questioning whether TTD can survive the tech giants’ land grab. Here’s why the November 6 earnings report could be a make-or-break moment.

Why Did The Trade Desk Stock Plunge 12% on September 10, 2025?

The immediate trigger was Morgan Stanley’s brutal downgrade from "Overweight" to "Equalweight," citing three red flags: weakening Connected TV revenue, a collapsing open-web ad market, and crushing competition. But the real gut punch came hours later—Amazon and Netflix announced a direct ad-booking partnership starting Q4 2025, bypassing intermediaries like TTD across 11 countries. As one BTCC analyst put it: "This isn’t just competition; it’s ecosystem warfare."

How Amazon-Netflix Deal Threatens The Trade Desk’s Survival

Imagine spending years positioning yourself as the anti-Google, only for two other titans to build a taller wall. That’s TTD’s nightmare. Amazon’s Demand-Side Platform (DSP) will let advertisers buy Netflix inventory directly—no middlemen. For context, Netflix’s ad-tier already hit 40M users globally (per Q2 2025 earnings), while Amazon’s ad biz grew 27% YoY. Together, they’re creating a closed-loop rival to TTD’s "open internet" ethos. "The moat just got deeper," noted TradingView data showing TTD’s RSI at 70 (overbought) despite fundamentals deteriorating.

Q3 Earnings Preview: Can The Trade Desk Rally Before 2025 Ends?

All eyes are on November 6, when TTD must: 1) Beat its meager 14% growth guidance, 2) Prove CTV isn’t crumbling (18.7% Q2 growth was already slowing), and 3) Outline a counterstrategy. Technically, the stock’s 47% gap below its 200-day MA screams "distress signal." Historically, TTD traded at 20x forward revenue—now it’s at 12x. "They either reinvent or become acquisition bait," argues a Bloomberg source. One wildcard: TTD’s UID2 identity framework could gain traction if cookie deprecation chaos worsens.

FAQ: The Trade Desk’s Make-or-Break Moment

What caused The Trade Desk’s September 2025 crash?

The stock dropped 12% on September 10 after Morgan Stanley’s downgrade and Amazon-Netflix’s ad partnership announcement, which threatens TTD’s role as an independent ad buyer.

Is The Trade Desk overvalued now?

With a forward P/E of 12x (vs. 20x pre-crisis) and RSI at 70, some argue it’s oversold technically—but fundamentals suggest more pain unless Q3 earnings surprise.

When is The Trade Desk’s next earnings report?

November 6, 2025. Analysts expect 14% YoY revenue growth and updates on competition mitigation strategies.