Alert On: BTG Advises Reducing Portfolio Risk After Trump’s ‘Tariff Shock’—Here Are the 10 Top Stocks for August 2025
- Why Is Trump’s Tariff Stirring Up Markets?
- Sabesp Over Copel: The Defensive Pivot Explained
- The Full 10SIM Portfolio: Diversification as Armor
- How to Access BTG’s 10SIM Picks (Free)
- FAQ: Your Tariff-Turbulence Toolkit
The financial markets are buzzing after Donald Trump’s recent 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, prompting BTG Pactual to recommend a defensive strategy for August. While the economic impact may be limited, the political fallout has spooked foreign investors, leading to a R$6.3 billion exodus from Brazilian equities. BTG’s updated "10SIM" portfolio swaps Copel (CPLE3) for Sabesp (SBSP3) and highlights 10 stocks poised to weather the storm. Dive into the full analysis below—including why Sabesp’s 10.2% IRR makes it a standout pick.
Why Is Trump’s Tariff Stirring Up Markets?
When TRUMP dropped the tariff bomb in July, it wasn’t just the numbers that rattled investors—it was the timing. The 50% levy on Brazilian exports to the U.S. kicked in on August 6, 2025, sending foreign investors scrambling. They’ve already pulled R$6.3 billion from Brazilian stocks, according to TradingView data. But here’s the twist: BTG’s analysts argue the real damage isn’t economic—it’s political. "This tariff undermines investor confidence more than GDP," notes the BTCC research team. Only 12% of Brazil’s exports head to the U.S. (just 1.8% of GDP), and 650 key products were exempted. Yet, the move kills any "sense of urgency" for foreign capital, turning August into a high-stakes chess game for portfolios.
Sabesp Over Copel: The Defensive Pivot Explained
BTG’s first major portfolio shift for August? Swapping out utility giant Copel for sanitation leader Sabesp. Here’s the breakdown:
- Sabesp’s Edge: A 10.2% projected IRR, plus privatization upside. "Post-restructuring, this could be a cash-flow machine," says a BTCC strategist.
- Political Shield: Water infrastructure is less tariff-sensitive than energy—critical when U.S.-Brazil tensions flare.
- 2025 Performance: While BTG’s 10SIM portfolio gained 12.3% YTD (vs. Ibovespa’s 10.6%), Sabesp’s stability stood out during July’s volatility.
Fun fact: Trump’s tariff exempted Brazil’s coffee exports—but investors are still jittery. Maybe they need a stronger brew.
The Full 10SIM Portfolio: Diversification as Armor
BTG’s August lineup spans six sectors, from real estate to healthcare. Key additions beyond Sabesp include:
| Sector | Stock | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Finance | Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) | Rate hike resilience |
| Healthcare | Fleury (FLRY3) | Aging population tailwinds |
| Transport | Rumo (RAIL3) | Agricultural export logistics |
Source: BTG Pactual research, August 2025
How to Access BTG’s 10SIM Picks (Free)
Good news for retail investors: BTG’s full August portfolio is available gratis. No "premium paywall" nonsense—just click their portal (hosted on TradingView for transparency) and follow the prompts. Pro tip: Bookmark it. With Brazil’s political winds shifting weekly, these recommendations might get another update before September.
FAQ: Your Tariff-Turbulence Toolkit
How severe is Trump’s tariff economically?
Less than headlines suggest. Exemptions cover 650 products, and affected exports equal just 1.8% of Brazil’s GDP. The bigger risk? Political uncertainty deterring foreign investment.
Why Sabesp over Copel?
Privatization potential + 10.2% IRR. Water utilities are also less volatile during trade spats—unlike energy firms facing tariff crossfire.
Did BTG’s past 10SIM picks perform well?
Yes. The 2025 YTD return of 12.3% outperformed Ibovespa’s 10.6%, per BTG’s July report.
