Bitcoin’s $110K–$116K Standoff: Will Derivatives Trigger the Next Big Breakout?
Bitcoin's grinding sideways action hits a critical inflection point—derivatives traders now hold the keys to the next major price movement.
The $110K–$116K range isn't just a technical zone; it's a battleground where futures, options, and perpetual swaps are piling up. Open interest screams tension. Funding rates whisper caution. Everyone's waiting for that one big whale or a cascade of liquidations to break the stalemate.
Call it a high-stakes poker game—only the chips are digital, the players are anonymous, and the house always takes a cut (classic finance, am I right?).
Will leveraged longs force a squeeze upward? Or are bears lurking with stacked sell orders and a smirk? One thing's clear: when this range breaks, it won't be quiet.
- Bitcoin remains stuck in a narrow band between $110k and $116k.
- Profit-taking and loss realization add pressure to the market.
- Derivatives now play a central role in guiding short-term moves.
Bitcoin’s trading range has narrowed as momentum continues to fade. According to Glassnode’s latest Market at a Crossroad report, the price is moving between $110k and $116k, a zone shaped by profit-taking and softer ETF inflows. The rally that pushed Bitcoin to record highs in mid-August has cooled, leaving the market in consolidation.
Cost Basis Distribution data outlines three important levels. Top-buyers from recent months sit NEAR $113.8k, while dip-buyers from the past month are clustered around $112.8k.
A deeper LAYER of short-term holders is anchored closer to $108.3k. Breaking above $113.8k would restore top-buyers into profit, while slipping under $108.3k could invite stress selling and expose the next support zone near $93k.
The rebound from $108k earlier this month reflected strong dip-buying activity. Even so, the question remains whether this pattern signals healthy consolidation or the start of a larger pullback.
Short-Term Holders Drive $189M Daily BTC Profit-Taking
Short-term holders have been a major source of selling pressure. Investors in the three-to-six month group have taken out around $189 million in daily profits, making up nearly 80% of realized gains among short-term wallets.
Many of these holders entered during the February to May dip and used the rebound to secure profits, creating resistance at higher levels.
At the same time, recent buyers have been realizing losses of up to $152 million per day. This behaviour mirrors earlier episodes in April 2024 and January 2025 when peak buyers cut their exposure during market stress.
For bitcoin to move higher, demand must be strong enough to absorb these exits. Sustained trading above $114k would signal renewed confidence.
Meanwhile, ETF flows have weakened noticeably. Netflows from US Spot ETFs now average around ±500 BTC daily, well below the intensity that fueled earlier rallies. The slowdown in traditional finance demand has made the structure more fragile.
Bitcoin Futures Show Steady Demand, No Overheating
With spot flows softening, derivatives are now setting the pace. Futures markets appear steady, not overheated. The three-month annualized futures basis remains under 10%, showing consistent demand for leverage without dangerous spikes.
Perpetual futures volumes also remain quiet, reflecting an advance built on accumulation rather than speculation. Options activity continues to grow, with open interest at record highs.
Institutions are increasingly turning to protective puts and covered calls for risk control. Implied volatility has declined, showing a maturing market structure. A tilt toward call contracts suggests cautious Optimism while still guarding against downside risks.
