Bitcoin Smashes $100K as Golden Cross Ignites FOMO—But Are Holders Cashing Out?

Bitcoin's bull run just got a technical turbocharge. The king of crypto blasted past $100,000 today as its 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day—the fabled 'Golden Cross' that sends traders into a frenzy.

But here's the twist: on-chain data shows long-term holders moving coins to exchanges at levels not seen since the 2021 peak. Are the OGs quietly taking profits while retail piles in? Classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' behavior—if you believe Bitcoin maximalists are capable of rational profit-taking.

The real question: will this technical signal trigger the mother of all FOMO rallies, or is this the set-up for a 'sell-side liquidity event' (Wall Street speak for 'everyone panic-selling at once')? Either way, grab your popcorn—and maybe a risk management strategy that isn't just praying to the crypto gods.

• Bitcoin’s price structure shows two possible outcomes on the weekly chart.
• A Golden Cross has reappeared, a signal historically tied to strong bull runs.
• Short-term holders face mounting pressure as profits remain limited.

Market observer Mags pointed out Bitcoin’s location within an obvious bullish channel on the weekly chart. The trend has been reliable, with the bottom line providing support and the top line being resistance.

The reaction has been obvious each time the price has reached these points. Currently, Bitcoin is in the middle of the line, and that has traders waiting on confirmation of where it’s going next.

Mags indicated two probable developments from this configuration. First, price does not break higher and instead takes a more profound pullback towards the low band and continues the big trend.

Secondly, a sharp break above resistance, which WOULD point toward a vertical rally and mark the cycle high. At the moment, the mid-channel position indicates indecision and leaves investors torn between prudence and hope.

Bitcoin Flashes Fourth Golden Cross

Merlijn The Trader pointed out that bitcoin just flashed the Golden Cross again. It is the occurrence where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average.

It has been regarded as one of the best long-term indications in technical analysis. The occurrence has only occurred three times in Bitcoin’s past up to 2025, and every single occasion has been followed up with explosive growth.

The prior returns speak for themselves. In 2016, Bitcoin gained more than 260% following the signal. In 2017, it went vertical, gaining more than 2,000%. In 2020, the breakout contributed more than 1,100%.

Now, we find the fourth Golden Cross, and it underlines the potential of one more large-scale cycle. As long as Bitcoin remains above $100,000 on a sustained basis for the majority of the previous half-year, it appears that the general bull run still has room in it.

Short-Term Holders Under Strain

On the other side of the market, trader Darkfost noted that the short-term investors are living a different reality. During the span from late 2024, their average realized gain has struggled to exceed 5%.

That is what is registered in the SOPR measure, analyzing the profit or loss on spending coins. At the moment, the short-term SOPR is standing at the neutral value of 1, and it depicts many recent buyers waiting with little gain.

Darkfost elaborated that the trend means there are many investors who entered the market tardily and now are waiting for high-reward exits.

Previously, during bull runs or periods of bearish holders liquidating at a loss, it normally gave favorable points of entry among seasoned investors. If this trend is repeated, what follows next is selling pressure among such softer hands before the market recovers again.