Grayscale Shatters Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Myth, Predicts Explosive 2026 Surge
Forget everything you thought you knew about Bitcoin's rhythm. The old four-year cycle playbook is getting ripped up.
The New Timing
Grayscale's latest analysis throws cold water on the predictable halving-to-peak timeline that traders have clung to for years. Instead of a 2025 climax, their models point to 2026 as the real fireworks show. It suggests the market's digestion of new supply is changing—slower, more complex, and ultimately more powerful.
What's Really Driving This?
The report hints that institutional adoption pipelines and evolving regulatory landscapes are becoming bigger price drivers than simple scarcity math. It's a structural shift, where traditional finance's glacial pace meets crypto's hyper-speed—creating a longer, but potentially steeper, runway.
The Bottom Line for Your Portfolio
If Grayscale is right, the 'buy the halving, sell the news' strategy is officially obsolete. This isn't just a delay; it's a fundamental recalibration of how Bitcoin accrues value in a world where every major bank is quietly building a crypto vault—usually right after publicly dismissing it.
Maybe the most predictable cycle in finance was just the warm-up act.
Bitcoin Market Pullbacks Remain Within Historical Range
Bitcoin’s more recent slide from early October to November resulted in a 32% loss from peak to trough. This is in line with history, since 2010, Bitcoin has had more than 50 drawdowns of at least 10%, and the average peak-to-trough drop is 30%.
Grayscale separates drawdowns into two categories: long-term cyclical declines, which last roughly 2–3 years, and shorter bull market pullbacks that average 25% over a couple of months.
The recent drop falls into the latter camp, so it appears to be typical bull market action. Despite the dip, some indicators point to potential stabilization.
High put option skew for 3– and 6-month tenors indicates investors are hedging against further downside, while large digital asset treasuries trade at discounts to the underlying crypto on their balance sheets.
On-chain data, including spikes in Coin Days Destroyed, shows that some long-term holders are moving Bitcoin, which can mark the final stages of selling before a recovery.
Privacy Coins Lead in November Gains
And Bitcoin was in the middle of the performance range across crypto sectors, behind privacy coins. Monero was up 30%, Zcash 8% and Decred 40%.
On the ethereum front, Vitalik Buterin announced to developers a privacy framework, and Zcash scaling solution developer Aztec launched Ignition Chain, another development of privacy-focused Layer 2 builds.
Other sectors underperformed too, with tokens related to AI crashing by 25%; despite Near’s cross-chain Intents product and Coinbase’s x402 AI-driven payment protocol now settling over 2 million transactions daily.
The U.S. crypto ETP space, in the meantime, jumped to 124 with $145 billion in assets under management as institutional adoption grows.
Grayscale finds that Bitcoin’s long-term case is intact due to changes in market structure, the possibility of rate cuts, and regulatory uncertainty.
Near the term, swings are likely to be among investors, but those patients may continue to see meaningful gains through next year and into 2026.
