Bitcoin at a Crossroads: 8-Year Trendline Retest Could Trigger Epic Rally or Brutal Rejection

All eyes on BTC as it dances with a make-or-break trendline that's governed its fate since 2017.

The setup: Bitcoin's flirting with a technical level so historically significant that traders are sweating Satoshis. This ain't just another support test—it's a battle between diamond hands and paper hands at the most consequential chart line in crypto.

Bull case: A clean breakout could send BTC screaming toward new highs, leaving skeptics scrambling to FOMO in. The 8-year trendline has been Bitcoin's launchpad before—why not again?

Bear trap: Fail to hold here, and we're looking at a potential cascade. The same line that boosted rallies could now accelerate declines. (Cue the 'I told you so' chorus from Wall Street dinosaurs.)

Meanwhile, institutional traders are placing bets on both outcomes—because why pick a side when you can profit from volatility and retail traders' tears?

Final thought: Whether this is the springboard to six figures or the trapdoor to sub-$30K, one thing's certain—the crypto casino never closes. Place your bets.

Crypto Michael says bitcoin is testing bullish zoneCrypto Michael says Bitcoin is testing the bullish zone Although BTC later broke above the line, reaching a new all-time high above $69,000, the move faltered by early 2022, coinciding with the end of that cycle’s rally. The current chart shows a similar structure. Bitcoin broke above the trendline as it surged to a new all-time high above $123,000 but has since pulled back to retest the level. The immediate level to watch is $114,000 to $115,000, where Bitcoin is now trading. If Bitcoin holds this level and closes above the multi-year trendline again, it could trigger more upside. However, a drop below may resemble the failed breakout seen in 2022.  Bitcoin to $150-$200k Bearish Moves Next? Similarly, a chart shared by prominent trader Ash Crypto shows Bitcoin replicating its 2017 bull run. In 2017, BTC broke out of a series of descending channels before a vertical surge from $7,900 to its all-time high of $19,841.

Ash crypto sees Bitcoin mirroing 2017 bull runAsh Crypto sees Bitcoin mirroring the 2017 bull run Now, in 2025, the price is trading above a local low of $111,919 and beneath resistance at $116,000, mirroring the same setup seen before the final rally in 2017. Ash Crypto mentions that BTC is now in a parabolic phase and could be on the verge of another massive breakout, potentially targeting $150,000–$180,000 in the coming weeks. Similarly, a new side-by-side chart shared by Trending Bitcoin also highlights similarities between Bitcoin’s 2020–2022 bull cycle and the ongoing rally. 

Trending Bitcoin Belives Hayes $250K Bitcoin forecastTrending Bitcoin Believes Hayes $250K Bitcoin forecast In the earlier cycle, Bitcoin accumulated between $8,000 and $12,000 throughout 2020 before breaking out in 2021 and peaking at $69,000, exactly as former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicted.  The current cycle shows a similar structure, with a fresh breakout underway in 2025. Trending Bitcoin looks at the identical patterns, suggesting Hayes’s $250,000 forecasts are underway.  Notably, Peter Brandt had earlier predicted a $125K–$150K Bitcoin top by Q3 2025 if it regains its parabolic trendline, while Bernstein, Bitwise, and Robert Kiyosaki foresee a surge beyond $200K.