FOMC Decision Today: Market Veterans Predict Bitcoin Rally—Here’s Why

Fed day just got more interesting. As the FOMC prepares its latest policy move, crypto traders are eyeing Bitcoin like a hawk circling prey. Could dovish whispers trigger a BTC surge? Let’s break it down.

The Liquidity Liftoff Thesis

Rate cuts? Even hints of them send risk assets into orbit. Bitcoin’s 2024 halving already tightened supply—now add potential dollar debasement to the mix. Veteran traders smell blood in the water.

Institutional FOMO Engine

Wall Street’s ETF cash faucets are primed to gush harder if macro winds shift. BlackRock didn’t build that warchest for sideways action. Meanwhile, retail traders still think ‘stablecoins’ mean price stability.

The Cynical Kick

Nothing unites crypto bulls and goldbugs quite like shared disdain for central bank theatrics. Powell’s poker face vs. Satoshi’s immutable math—place your bets.

Only two FOMC meetings led to declines: a mild 2% drop in January 2025 and a larger 29% correction in February. Given this historical pattern of predominantly positive price movement, Merlijn anticipates the potential for another upward shift if similar conditions unfold. Notably, bitcoin is trading at $117,558, a 1.2% drop in the past day, reducing its monthly gain to 9.2%.   No Rate Change Expected, Focus on Powell’s Comments Today’s FOMC decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET. According to market data, there is a 97.9% probability the Fed will hold rates steady. This reflects the current economic outlook and recent inflation readings. However, the market does not treat the rate decision as the main event. Instead, traders are focused on what Powell will say during the press conference following the announcement. Financial analyst Cas Abbé highlighted the potential for sharp market moves surrounding today’s events, pointing to the importance of Jerome Powell’s press conference as the key moment that could drive volatility. 

He noted that recent meetings between Powell and political leaders, including Donald Trump, have raised speculation that Powell may strike a more dovish tone. Dovish Signals Could Trigger a Rally In monetary policy, a dovish stance indicates the potential for rate cuts or looser financial conditions. If Powell signals such a shift, traders believe it could increase risk assets, especially Bitcoin. Bitcoin often reacts strongly to Fed guidance, reflecting broader sentiment around liquidity and risk-taking. If Powell hints at easing in the months ahead, traders may take that as a green light to rotate capital into crypto and tech-related assets. Notably, Merlijn also pointed to a strong link between rising global liquidity and Bitcoin’s recent price gains, highlighting that Bitcoin has closely tracked increases in Global M2.  https://twitter.com/MerlijnTrader/status/1950549292638257455 He emphasized that liquidity is building ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, positioning the event as a key catalyst. With ethereum consolidating and altcoins weakening, he suggests that the outcome of the Fed’s decision could drive the next major move in the crypto market. Bitcoin's Price Analysis  Meanwhile, Bitcoin is consolidating tightly within a symmetrical triangle pattern ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. Price has been range-bound between $117,000 and $118,700 over the past 72 hours, with volatility expected to increase as the pattern approaches its apex. 

Despite short-term weakness indicated by technical signals like the Parabolic SAR and VWAP rejection NEAR $118,099, Bitcoin defends its ascending trendline.