Bitcoin & Ethereum 2025: The Unfinished Rally Nobody Saw Coming

Crypto markets defy gravity as institutional adoption hits escape velocity.

The Institutional Tsunami

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF now holds more BTC than MicroStrategy—a staggering reversal that's rewriting the crypto rulebook. Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are quietly accumulating positions while mainstream media sleeps.

Ethereum's Silent Revolution

ETH 2.0 staking yields are attracting capital fleeing traditional finance's pathetic returns. The merge completed years ago but the compounding effects are just now hitting critical mass. DeFi protocols are eating traditional banking's lunch—one automated smart contract at a time.

Regulatory Clarity Finally Arrives

The SEC's surrender on crypto classification clears the path for trillions in sidelined capital. Wall Street's compliance departments can finally stop pretending they don't understand blockchain technology.

Global Macro Tailwinds

Central bank digital currencies are making Bitcoin look sophisticated by comparison. Meanwhile, emerging market currencies continue their slow-motion collapse—driving adoption where it matters most.

The cynical take? Traditional finance still thinks it's early—they're about to discover they're late to another party they claimed to hate. Again.

Key Insights:

• BTC and ETH price are likely to react positively if the Fed cuts interest rates.
• JP Morgan, State Street maintain that Fed will cut rates, and might cut in December as well.
• BTC price and ETH price still might mark new ATHs unless there are major geopolitical shocks.

Markets around the world loom forward to the Federal Reserve Chair’s October 29th announcement. Chair Jerome Powell will pronounce the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to cut (or not cut) the Federal Funds Rate (FFR or simply, the Fed rate).

Over the years, the crypto market’s performance in the October month of the year became known to be a boon or “Uptober”. However, this time, this was no ‘Uptober,’ at least for many in the crypto market. While some made generational wealth, many lost a lot, some more than just money.

Despite the mid-October shock, BTC and ETH might still be primed for a year-end rally. High confidence in a Fed rate cut, historical performance during Uptobers, and technical analysis suggests BTC and ETH could still make it to new all-time-highs (ATHs) by the end of the year.

BTC, ETH Price Continue to Power Through 2025

BTC Price recently dropped under the $104,000 mark, sending shockwaves through the market. After all, nearly the entire crypto market mirrors BTC’s movement. However, while the monthly and weekly numbers are bleak, longer-term numbers are impressive.

Over the past year, BTC has been up 69%, trading at the $114,000 mark at press time. Over the past month, it showed a 4.5% increase. Around October 6th, BTC pegged its all-time-high (ATH) at aroud $126,000.

ETH price was trading near the $4,100 zone, a nearly 65% increase over the last 12 months. Over the past month, it was up over 2.8%. ethereum clocked its ATH in August this year, just a few dollars from the elusive $5,000 mark.

These yearly figures are not impressive purely because of the magnitude. Note that these yearly figures are increases from last year’s ‘Uptober,’ which was mostly green, unlike 2025.

Moreover, the market structure is fundamentally different from previous years. Institutional pull is the strongest it has ever been since ETFs were given the green light early last year. Also, regulatory bulwark in the US is changing rapidly.

In just a year of President Trump’s second term, multiple favorable legislations and even pardons have been pronounced. Trump’s announcements related to trade, tariffs, and international affairs may be incendiary, but his actions related to crypto are the complete opposite.

Historically, both BTC and ETH gave positive returns in the fourth quarter of the last three years. As of now, the fourth quarter is still positive for the two cryptocurrencies. So far into 2025’s Q4, BTC has given 0.63% returns while ETH has displayed a 0.27% uptick.

Bitcoin gave positive returns in the last seven Octobers, including in 2025; however, this has been the weakest October.

Experts Highlight BTC and ETH Rally Pathways in 2025

Market commentator and the man behind Into The Cryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen, recently analysed BTC price performance. He noted that Bitcoin was yet to drop below its 50-week moving average. He added that bitcoin managed to crawl back up above its bull-market support band.

The 50-week moving average is significant because it can act like a clear signal for the end or continuation of a trend. According to Cowen, if the price goes under this MA, it’s a strong signal that the prevailing trend has concluded.

In Bitcoin’s case, it is still above its 50-week MA, moreover, Cowen pointed out, BTC just went above its 20-week moving average. Staying above this MA suggests there’s more ‘wiggle room’ for BTC price.

Additionally, Cowen still maintains that if BTC Dominance manages to climb past the 60% magic zone, it will ‘shoot up’ from there.

Building on his chart analysis, BTC could still sail past its October ATH by December 2025. However, the analyst warned that this year, BTC had already dipped significantly below 2024 highs.

Why Ethereum Price Could Rally in 2025

Analyst Ted Pillows recently pointed out that SPX struck an all-time high. This would, he noted, suggest that liquidity was about to FLOW to risk-on assets. That is, BTC and ETH were about to receive a fund flush.

Pillows also highlighted a whale’s long positions on Monday. The Whale’s BTC position size was over $234 Million, and the ETH position size was over $198 Million. Pillows commented that the whale was expecting more highs.

Notably, Polymarket data shows at press time, a 51% chance that ETH could hit $5000 in 2025.

Another case for a parabolic rally for ETH price was put out by Crypto Rover. The analyst pointed out a similarity in Ethereum’s present price movement with a 2020 structure. If the similarity is true, ETH is looking at nothing short of a super-charged surge past $10,000.

While several strong and bold chart readings lay out there, including some of those shared here, Benjamin Cowen’s analysis sticks out. Cowen has noted that a bull run is going to be led by Bitcoin. Therefore, the barometer for a price surge on ETH and other altcoins WOULD be BTC’s performance.

Signals confirming liquidity transfer to Bitcoin could function like simultaneous signals for altcoin surges.

Also, ETH’s monthly performance has been far worse than BTC; this can be seen as a strong signal that an ETH rally will likely follow only a BTC rally.

JP Morgan Global Research and State Street’s Investment Managers, the corporation’s asset management arm, maintain that the Fed is likely to cut the Fed rate on Wednesday and also in December.

Also, as long as the shutdown continues, the Fed is in the dark. While inflation data was soothing, the Fed will still want labor market data to make better-informed decisions.