Bitcoin’s Bull Run: Technical Analysis Points to $115K Surge by Summer’s End

Bitcoin's charts are flashing green—and traders are betting big on a six-figure breakout.

Key indicators suggest BTC could hit $115,000 before September, despite Wall Street's usual summer slump. When did hedge funds ever understand exponential curves anyway?

The setup: A textbook bullish pennant formation on weekly charts, backed by rising volume. The last time these signals aligned? Before Bitcoin's 2021 parabolic rally.

Critical levels to watch: Sustained closes above $72,000 would confirm the uptrend. Below $65,000? The bears might get a brief window to fake relevance.

One hedge fund manager sniffed 'overbought conditions' while shorting BTC at $69,000. His fund is now restructuring—coincidence or cosmic justice?

Derivatives Market Shows Divergence in Sentiment

Despite Bitcoin’s recent rally, options data from analytics firm Glassnode reveals underlying caution. The 25 Delta Skew, which measures sentiment across different timeframes, shows a bearish slant for the three- and six-month tenors. The current negative values—around -2.6% for the three-month skew and -4.3% for the six-month—suggest that more traders are paying premiums for puts over calls.

In other words, even with Bitcoin climbing steadily, the options market continues to price in risk over the coming months. The presence of put-heavy trading volumes implies that while panic is low, confidence in a sustained rally remains fragile.

Summer Could Slow Momentum

Historically, summer months have not been kind to Bitcoin. According to data from CoinGlass, Q3 has consistently ranked as the weakest quarter for BTC performance. On average, Bitcoin has returned just 6% during Q3, with many analysts blaming the dip in market activity on summer holidays and reduced institutional participation.

However, it’s not all bleak. July has traditionally been an outlier within the quarter, averaging a 7.5% return. This historical trend suggests a potential early Q3 rally, possibly followed by weakness in August and September.

Analysts warn that while Bitcoin may push higher in July, it must contend with seasonal headwinds and reduced volume that could cap any upside. Yet, the market has a history of defying expectations, especially when external catalysts or bullish narratives are in play.

Polymarket Predicts a Breakout

One bullish narrative gaining traction is the high probability of a new ATH in Q3. On Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, over 85% of traders are betting that Bitcoin will surpass its previous all-time high before October. For that to happen, BTC WOULD need to break above $112,000 within the next few months.

This sentiment is echoed by independent analysts such as Stockmoney Lizards, who forecast a MOVE toward $115,000 by August. Their predictions are based on a combination of technical breakouts, historical price patterns, and macroeconomic stability. If correct, Bitcoin would not only invalidate seasonal trends but also resume its broader uptrend.

Technical Setups Show Promise

From a charting perspective, Bitcoin is showing early signs of building bullish momentum. After reclaiming the $108K level, it now faces key resistance at $110K and then again NEAR $112K—the threshold many consider the point of confirmation for a new ATH.

The asset’s structure on daily and weekly timeframes suggests the possibility of a continuation pattern. Traders will be closely watching for consolidation above $108K, which could serve as a platform for further gains.

Volume will remain a critical factor. If trading activity continues to build, it could confirm bullish conviction and support a run toward $115K. However, if volumes taper off, especially in late July or August, the rally may struggle to sustain itself.

Balancing Optimism with Realism

While there’s growing excitement about Bitcoin potentially breaking new records, traders are also approaching the situation with a level of caution. The macroeconomic landscape, while currently calm, can change quickly. Regulatory news, ETF updates, or geopolitical events could act as either tailwinds or headwinds.

Moreover, the heavy presence of bearish options positions in the mid-term means that some players are actively hedging against downside risk. These hedges could indicate skepticism around how much more upside BTC can achieve in the short to mid-term.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent price action has reignited the debate over whether a new all-time high is within reach this summer. On the one hand, strong bullish sentiment from prediction markets and technical analysts supports a push toward $115K. On the other, historical trends and cautious derivatives positioning suggest a more measured outlook.

If July delivers as it has in the past, BTC could gain enough momentum to test previous highs. But as August approaches, traders should brace for potential slowdowns. Regardless, Bitcoin’s price action in Q3 will likely set the tone for the remainder of 2025.