Polymarket Traders Turn Against Hassett Following Trump’s Remarks – Here’s Why

• What Sparked the Shift in Polymarket Odds?
• Why Is Hassett Losing Trader Confidence?
• Behind the Scenes: Powell’s Shadow and Political Drama
• Could Congress Block Trump’s Nominee?
• FAQs: Polymarket’s Fed Chair Betting Frenzy

Polymarket traders are shifting their bets against Kevin Hassett after former President Donald Trump's ambiguous comments about his potential nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. While Kevin Warsh remains the favorite with 56% odds, Hassett's chances have barely budged to 18%, reflecting market skepticism. This article dives into the drama, the key players, and why Wall Street is watching closely.

What Sparked the Shift in Polymarket Odds?

During a WHITE House event on Friday, Trump publicly thanked Kevin Warsh, hinting he’d prefer him to "stay right where you are." The remark sent Polymarket into a frenzy—Warsh’s odds jumped to 60% that afternoon, while Hassett lagged at 17%. By Monday, Warsh stabilized at 56%, and Hassett inched up to just 18%. For context, Christopher Waller, a dark horse, sits at 15%, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder trails at 8%.

Why Is Hassett Losing Trader Confidence?

Hassett, once seen as Trump’s loyalist, faced a blow when TRUMP told staffers, "We don’t want to lose him [Hassett], but we’ll see." That uncertainty rattled Polymarket’s 11 million bettors. Meanwhile, Warsh’s recent dovish pivot boosted his appeal—though his history as an inflation hawk adds unpredictability. "Warsh is a wildcard," noted Wells Fargo strategists earlier this year.

Behind the Scenes: Powell’s Shadow and Political Drama

While Trump weighs his pick, Jerome Powell is under a White House probe over alleged $2.5B cost overruns in Fed building renovations. Powell denies wrongdoing, calling it pressure tactics for not slashing rates further. The Fed claims asbestos and labor issues drove costs. Hassett, in a Fox Business interview, called Powell "a good man" but criticized the Fed’s lack of transparency.

Could Congress Block Trump’s Nominee?

Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) threatened to stall any Fed nomination post-probe, signaling bipartisan pushback. With Powell’s term ending in May, the stakes are high—especially since he could technically stay until 2028.

FAQs: Polymarket’s Fed Chair Betting Frenzy

Why did Warsh’s odds surge after Trump’s comments?

Trump’s praise ("you’ve been fantastic on TV") signaled favoritism, prompting traders to back Warsh as the likely nominee.

Is Hassett completely out of the running?

Not yet—but at 18% odds, the market sees him as a long shot unless Trump makes a decisive move.

How reliable are Polymarket’s predictions?

While not foolproof, prediction markets like Polymarket often reflect real-time sentiment shifts better than polls.