Polymarket Traders Shift Bets Against Hassett Following Trump’s Remarks – 2026 Fed Chair Odds Update
- How Did Trump’s Speech Reshape the Fed Chair Race?
- Why Are 18% of Bettors Still Backing Hassett?
- Warsh’s Policy Whiplash – Asset or Liability?
- The Powell Factor: How a Corruption Probe Shadows the Race
- What’s Next for the Fed Leadership Drama?
- FAQ: Your Fed Chair Betting Questions Answered
Donald Trump's recent comments at a WHITE House event have sent shockwaves through Polymarket, where traders now favor Kevin Warsh (56%) over loyalist Kevin Hassett (18%) for the next Federal Reserve chair. Amid a corruption probe against current Chair Jerome Powell and escalating political tensions, the prediction market reflects growing uncertainty about Trump’s final pick. Here’s why Warsh’s fluctuating policy stance and Hassett’s fading loyalty narrative are reshaping the odds.
How Did Trump’s Speech Reshape the Fed Chair Race?
During Friday’s event, TRUMP openly praised Kevin Warsh while giving Hassett a lukewarm endorsement:Polymarket reacted instantly – Warsh’s odds surged to 60% that afternoon before settling at 56%, while Hassett barely climbed to 18%. The image below captures the dramatic shift:
Source: Polymarket data via CoinMarketCap
Why Are 18% of Bettors Still Backing Hassett?
Despite Trump’s ambiguous stance, Hassett retains a niche following. His reputation as Trump’s most loyal economic advisor keeps hope alive for 11 million Polymarket contracts. As one BTCC analyst noted:Meanwhile, dark horse Christopher Waller (15%) and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder (8%) trail significantly.
Warsh’s Policy Whiplash – Asset or Liability?
The former Fed governor’s contradictory record baffles markets. During the 2008 crisis, he advocated higher rates to curb inflation; now he champions loose monetary policy. Wells Fargo’s team summarized:Kalshi’s parallel market shows similar trends – 59% for Warsh versus Hassett’s 18%.
The Powell Factor: How a Corruption Probe Shadows the Race
While candidates jockey for position, Powell faces a $2.5B building renovation scandal. Trump allies allege cost overruns, which Powell attributes to asbestos and toxic soil remediation. Hassett’s measured Fox Business comments () contrast with Senator Thom Tillis’ threat to block all Fed nominees until the probe concludes.
What’s Next for the Fed Leadership Drama?
With Powell’s term ending in May 2026 but extendable until 2028, the political chess game intensifies. Polymarket’s real-time odds suggest traders believe Trump will prioritize policy alignment (Warsh) over personal loyalty (Hassett). As one veteran trader quipped:
FAQ: Your Fed Chair Betting Questions Answered
Why did Warsh’s odds spike after Trump’s comments?
Trump’s explicit praise ("fantastic on TV today") signaled stronger endorsement than his vague remarks about Hassett.
How reliable are Polymarket’s political predictions?
Historical accuracy hovers around 72% for major appointments, per 2025 MIT research – better than polls but still speculative.
Could Powell remain chair despite the investigation?
Yes. The Fed’s independence means Trump WOULD need Senate approval to replace him before 2028.
