BASF Stock Alert: Goldman Sachs Issues Mixed Signals – What Investors Need to Know in 2025

• Goldman's Schizophrenic BASF Analysis: Bullish Target, Bearish Earnings
• Portfolio Purge Continues: Optical Brighteners Get the Axe
• Ludwigshafen Labor Deal: Stability at a Cost
• Bottom Fishing or Falling Knife?
• FAQs: Your BASF Questions Answered

Goldman Sachs just dropped a bombshell on BASF investors. While raising the price target slightly, they slashed Q4 2025 EBITDA forecasts by 19% – creating market confusion. With BASF shares hovering NEAR 52-week lows, we break down the strategic shifts, Ludwigshafen's labor deal, and whether this chemical giant deserves a spot in your portfolio right now. Buckle up for some serious financial drama.

Goldman's Schizophrenic BASF Analysis: Bullish Target, Bearish Earnings

Talk about mixed messages! Goldman Sachs analysts just pulled a classic Wall Street MOVE – they bumped BASF's price target from €46 to €48 while simultaneously gutting their Q4 2025 EBITDA forecast by 19% to a mere €1.19 billion. This puts their estimate a full 10% below market consensus. The market's response? BASF shares are currently among the DAX's worst performers today, trading around €44 and flirting with their 52-week low of €40.

Digging deeper into the numbers reveals more pain. Goldman also trimmed estimates for 2026 and 2027, though less severely. The bank cites "more challenging than expected" year-end operating conditions. That modest €2 price target increase feels like throwing a drowning man a life preserver made of lead.

Portfolio Purge Continues: Optical Brighteners Get the Axe

BASF isn't sitting idle amidst the turmoil. The company just announced the sale of its optical brighteners business (those chemicals that make your whites whiter) to Catexel, including the Swiss production site in Monthey. While financial terms remain under wraps, the deal should close by Q1 2026.

This continues BASF's strategy of shedding non-core assets to focus on high-growth segments. Long-term? Probably smart. Short-term? It's like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic while earnings keep sinking. The market clearly wants operational fixes, not just strategic pivots.

Ludwigshafen Labor Deal: Stability at a Cost

Here's some rare good news – BASF's main Ludwigshafen plant secured labor peace through 2028 with a no-layoff guarantee. The catch? BASF must invest €2 billion annually in modernization. While this provides workforce stability, it's a brutal cash Flow drain in tough markets.

German industrial sites continue struggling with high fixed costs, and Ludwigshafen exemplifies this challenge. As one Frankfurt trader quipped, "They've bought labor peace, but at what price to shareholders?"

Bottom Fishing or Falling Knife?

With BASF shares near multi-year lows, value hunters might be tempted. But Goldman's analysis suggests the pain isn't over. The planned agriculture business IPO by 2027 could create value, but that's a long wait for investors nursing short-term losses.

The BTCC research team notes: "BASF needs to demonstrate operational improvement before we'd recommend buying this dip. That Q4 guidance cut is simply too severe to ignore." Current TradingView charts show the stock trapped in a clear downtrend, with €40 psychological support looming below.