CAC 40 Kicks Off the Week on a Positive Note, Unfazed by François Bayrou’s Political Fate (2025-09-09)

• Why Did European Markets Rally Despite Political Uncertainty?
• ASML's Surprise Move Into French AI
• Meal Voucher Stocks Take a Beating
• Airbus Soars on Buyback News
• Mixed Signals From German Macro Data
• Currency Markets React
• What's Next for French Markets?
• Frequently Asked Questions

European markets, led by France's CAC 40, closed higher on Monday as investors cheered the prospect of Fed rate cuts. While French PM François Bayrou faced a no-confidence vote, markets shrugged off domestic political drama. The Franco-German spread narrowed to 76.7 bps, semiconductor giant ASML emerged as potential top investor in Mistral AI, and Turkish antitrust probes hit meal voucher providers. Airbus announced a major buyback program while German industrial data showed mixed signals.

Why Did European Markets Rally Despite Political Uncertainty?

European indices defied political turbulence to post solid gains on September 8, 2025. The CAC 40 climbed 0.78% to 7,738.84 points while the EuroStoxx50 advanced 0.92% to 5,367.22 points. "Markets are laser-focused on monetary policy rather than parliamentary drama," noted a BTCC analyst. "The Fed's dovish tilt continues to outweigh local political risks." TradingView data shows this marks the CAC 40's third consecutive weekly gain.

ASML's Surprise Move Into French AI

In a potential game-changer for Europe's tech landscape, Dutch semiconductor equipment Maker ASML (+2.48% to €676.60) may become the largest shareholder in French AI champion Mistral AI. Reuters reports ASML committed €1.3 billion in Mistral's €1.7 billion funding round. "This could create Europe's first vertically integrated AI-hardware player," observed an industry insider. The deal would mark ASML's biggest diversification move since its 2023 expansion into quantum computing.

Meal Voucher Stocks Take a Beating

Edenred (-3.65%) and Pluxee (-6.91%) dragged the SBF 120 after Turkey's competition authority launched probes into alleged anti-competitive practices. The investigation targets four major players in Turkey's meal card sector. "These companies control nearly 80% of the Turkish market," explained a regulatory expert. "Authorities are examining potential bid-rigging and data-sharing violations." The timing proved unfortunate as Bayrou's confidence vote added domestic political pressure.

Airbus Soars on Buyback News

Airbus shares gained 2.16% after announcing a €4.14 million share repurchase program running through January 2026. The aerospace giant plans to use repurchased shares for employee stock plans and executive compensation. "This signals strong cash Flow confidence," said a London-based analyst. The first tranche (2.07 million shares) begins September 2025 - coinciding with Airbus's traditional autumn production ramp-up.

Mixed Signals From German Macro Data

Germany's July industrial production surprised positively (+1.3% vs +1.1% expected), rebounding from June's 0.1% contraction. However, the trade surplus narrowed to €14.7 billion (below €15.7 billion forecasts). The Sentix investor confidence index worsened to -9.2 in September, its lowest since March 2025. "The current situation assessment hit rock bottom," commented Sentix researchers, noting resurgent recession concerns despite the production rebound.

Currency Markets React

The euro strengthened 0.89% to $1.1747 by late afternoon, benefiting from improved risk sentiment. "It's a classic risk-on move," said a Frankfurt trader. "When Wall Street smells rate cuts, everything denominated in dollars becomes fair game." The currency MOVE came despite the disappointing German trade data, suggesting broader macroeconomic trends are driving forex markets.

What's Next for French Markets?

With Bayrou's political fate sealed (the PM lost his confidence vote by 15 votes), attention turns to potential cabinet reshuffles. However, markets appear more focused on Thursday's ECB meeting. "The real question is whether Lagarde will match the Fed's dovishness," noted our BTCC analyst. Meanwhile, traders will watch whether ASML confirms its Mistral AI investment - a deal that could reshape Europe's tech hierarchy.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the CAC 40 rise despite political uncertainty in France?

Markets prioritized expectations of Fed rate cuts over domestic French politics, viewing monetary policy as the dominant market driver.

How significant is ASML's potential investment in Mistral AI?

This WOULD mark Europe's largest AI investment in 2025 and create strategic synergies between semiconductor manufacturing and AI development.

What caused Edenred and Pluxee's stock declines?

Turkish antitrust investigations combined with political uncertainty during France's confidence vote created a perfect storm for meal voucher providers.

When does Airbus's share buyback program begin?

The first phase starts September 8, 2025, covering up to 2.07 million shares through October 31, 2025.