Top Firm Predicts No Surge For XRP Despite Anticipated October Spot ETF Approval - Here’s Why

XRP's ETF Hype Meets Reality Check

Wall Street's biggest names are pouring cold water on the XRP rally narrative—even with spot ETF approval looking likely next month. One top analyst firm just dropped the bombshell: don't expect major price movement.

Why The Skepticism?

Regulatory overhangs and institutional hesitation are keeping big money on the sidelines. Unlike Bitcoin's clean regulatory runway, XRP's legacy legal battles left scars that still spook traditional finance players—who apparently need more than a green light to actually open their wallets.

The Bigger Picture

ETF approval doesn't automatically equal moon mission. Market structure, liquidity depth, and—let's be real—the fact that Wall Street loves to hype products more than it loves to buy them, all play a role. Another case of 'buy the rumor, sell the news'? Wouldn't be the first time finance overpromised and underdelivered.

Warns Of Prolonged Downtrend

In a recent analysis, the firm attributed some of XRP’s lackluster performance to a general malaise in the cryptocurrency market, where traders are waiting for Bitcoin (BTC), the market’s leading cryptocurrency, to lead a new price rally. 

However, two critical factors suggest that XRP may face a more prolonged downtrend than previously expected. The anticipated launch of new spot crypto ETFs has been a focal point of discussion since the beginning of the year. 

Several asset managers have submitted applications to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to create spot XRP ETFs, with Bloomberg estimating a 95% approval chance and online prediction markets estimating 94%.

While approval seems likely, the real question revolves around the demand for these ETFs. XRP, currently the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency, undoubtedly has some level of institutional interest, yet the actual inflows tell a different story. 

Data indicates that only $1.25 billion flowed into XRP from institutional investors during the first eight months of 2025. JPMorgan Chase has projected that the upcoming ETFs could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion into XRP. 

However, the firm asserts that even the lower end of this estimate might not significantly influence XRP’s price action over the long-term, given its current market capitalization of $180 billion.

Recovery For XRP May Not Occur Until 2026

While there is considerable Optimism among analysts regarding XRP’s future, with some price predictions suggesting it could reach new record prices of up to $4, $5, or even $10, the firms noted that these projections do not account for the risks of short-term price declines. 

According to crypto betting platform, Polymarket, there is a 32% chance of XRP dropping to $2.50 this year, a 30% chance it could fall to $2.40, and a 27% chance of plummeting to $2. 

These statistics indicate that XRP could continue to drift lower over the next few months before any meaningful recovery takes place, potentially not occurring until 2026.

Ultimately, The Motley Fool analysis suggests that any upward movement for XRP is likely to depend on Bitcoin’s performance. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim its previous peak by the end of the year, it will be challenging for XRP to initiate its own rally. 

As of this writing, the xrp price has recovered the $3.0675 mark, representing a 1.5% surge within the last 24 hours. This pales in comparison to Ethereum’s (ETH) 5% gains within the same time frame. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com