Bitcoin’s 30-Day Momentum Exposes Critical Demand Void Despite Supply Squeeze

Bitcoin's crawling ascent reveals a troubling paradox—weak supply meets weaker demand.

The 30-day momentum indicator flashes warning signs that this isn't organic growth.

Supply constraints might be propping up prices temporarily, but genuine investor appetite remains conspicuously absent.

Traders watch nervously as the digital gold narrative collides with cold, hard metrics.

Another day in crypto—where fundamentals often take a backseat to speculative frenzy and Wall Street's latest flavor-of-the-month narrative.

Bitcoin Market Drift: Momentum, Liquidity, and Demand

According to Adler, Bitcoin’s current setup reflects a phase of sideways action rather than a structural breakdown. He notes that negative 30-day momentum, while the price holds in the upper range, typically signals step-by-step unloading. In other words, coins are changing hands gradually without triggering a full reversal in the trend. For a proper restart and renewed acceleration, Adler identifies a key marker: the 30-day momentum must not only return to positive territory but also ideally push above +10%. That WOULD confirm a shift back into a strong impulse phase.

Until then, Adler emphasizes that the market remains in drift mode, shaped by thin liquidity. With fewer participants actively trading, the price can still crawl upward, largely due to weak supply and localized buybacks. However, this kind of advance carries the risk of a rapid collapse, since any spike in selling pressure could quickly overwhelm shallow order books.

Crucially, Adler stresses that real demand does not emerge at cycle highs. Instead, it forms during moments when Bitcoin trades at an obvious discount. Referencing his earlier work on Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis versus Premium/Discount, he highlights that meaningful inflows only arrive when the market offers value. In a mature bull phase, where buyers are wary of chasing peaks, sustained rallies depend on these discounted entry points rather than speculative momentum alone.

This perspective underscores the delicate balance in Bitcoin’s current landscape: still structurally strong, but highly sensitive to liquidity shocks.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $115,142 after a strong recovery from the $110,000 zone earlier this month. The 12-hour chart shows BTC climbing steadily and now pressing against a key cluster of moving averages. The 100 SMA at $114,610 is being tested as resistance, while the 200 SMA at $112,267 has now flipped into support, strengthening the bullish case. The 50 SMA at $111,987 is also trending upward, suggesting a short-term momentum shift in favor of buyers.

A successful close above $116,000 would mark a significant step forward for bulls, potentially opening the path to retest $118,000 and the critical resistance at $123,217. This level remains the major barrier before bitcoin can attempt another push toward its all-time highs.

On the downside, immediate support rests NEAR $114,000, followed by the $112,000 zone where the 200 SMA is positioned. Losing this level could weaken momentum and invite another round of selling pressure, with downside risks extending toward $110,000.

The chart signals that Bitcoin has regained its footing after recent volatility. If bulls can hold above the moving averages and break through $116,000, the next leg higher may be underway, though resistance at $123K will be the true test.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView