Bitcoin CDD Indicator Flags LTH Distribution—But Surging Demand Absorbs Selling Pressure
Bitcoin's Coin Days Destroyed metric just flashed a warning sign: long-term holders are distributing. Yet robust market demand is soaking up the supply—keeping prices stable despite the selling pressure.
What’s Driving the Movement?
Large wallets are finally moving coins after extended dormancy. The CDD spike suggests profit-taking or repositioning among seasoned investors. Still, incoming buy orders—especially from ETFs and institutional players—are matching the outflow.
A Test of Market Maturity
This isn’t 2017 anymore. Markets now handle sell-offs without panic. Strong fundamentals, institutional infrastructure, and clearer regulations help buffer volatility. Even as old hands cash out, new money steps in.
Watch the Charts—Not the Headlines
Ignore the doom-scrolling pundits. On-chain data tells the real story: demand offsets distribution. Bitcoin’s resilience here signals deeper liquidity and healthier price discovery. Another step toward maturity—while traditional finance still tries to short it with leveraged memes.
Strong LTH Movement Meets Resilient Demand
Darkfost shared that the market has just experienced the strongest movement of old Bitcoin (LTHs) in this cycle so far. Long-term holders, who typically keep their coins dormant for extended periods, have been moving significant amounts of BTC back into circulation. This is a noteworthy development because it represents the most intense wave of long-term holder activity since the current bull cycle began.
What makes this event particularly striking is that despite the heavy selling pressure from these seasoned holders, Bitcoin’s price has only corrected between 10% and 13% from its recent highs. By historical standards, this is a relatively modest drawdown, suggesting that the market remains resilient.
Darkfost points out that the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric is crucial here. CDD tracks how long BTC has been held before being moved. When older coins are suddenly spent, it typically reflects distribution by experienced holders—often interpreted as profit-taking or a shift in positioning. A spike in CDD, therefore, signals significant selling pressure.
However, the key takeaway is that demand has so far absorbed this spike remarkably well. Institutional inflows, treasury accumulation, and strong market liquidity appear to be offsetting the selling activity. While this doesn’t completely remove downside risk—especially if further long-term holders decide to exit—the market’s ability to withstand such a strong wave of distribution without a deeper crash is encouraging.
The broader implication is that Bitcoin’s structure remains strong, even as it faces temporary challenges. If demand continues to hold firm, this phase of redistribution may ultimately serve as a healthy reset, setting the stage for the next leg higher. Still, investors should remain cautious: the market is not out of the woods just yet.
Price Testing Support After Pullback
Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,870, staging a modest recovery after a pullback from its all-time high NEAR $124,500. The chart shows that BTC has been in a consolidation phase following months of strong gains, with price action now hovering above the 100-day moving average (green line) and testing the mid-term trend structure.
The 50-day moving average (blue line) is slightly above the current price, acting as short-term resistance. A decisive break above this level could open the door for another attempt at the $120K–$123K zone, which remains the critical resistance for bulls to reclaim in order to re-enter price discovery.
On the downside, support is forming around the $110K–$108K range, close to the rising 100-day moving average, which has held well during previous corrections. A breakdown below this level WOULD risk a deeper retracement toward the 200-day moving average (red line) near $82K, though such a move would require strong selling pressure.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
