Bitcoin’s Bull Run at a Crossroads: Long-Term Holders Drop Cryptic Clues

Bitcoin's relentless rally faces its first real test—and the OGs aren’t making predictions easy.

The HODLer Divide

Veteran BTC whales are sending conflicting signals. Some are cashing out at near-ATH prices, while others are doubling down like it’s 2021. The market’s stuck reading tea leaves until the next big move.

Institutional FOMO vs. Retail Panic

Wall Street’s latest ‘digital gold’ ETFs keep inflows coming, but retail traders are sweating every 5% dip. Pro tip: volatility isn’t a bug—it’s Bitcoin’s main feature.

The Cynic’s Corner

Meanwhile, traditional finance pundits still can’t decide if BTC is a hedge against inflation or a greater fool theory case study. Spoiler: it’s been both—often in the same week.

Long-Term Holder Trends Across Market Cycles

CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA shared an assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized profit and loss (RPL) metric, which tracks when investors who have held coins for extended periods decide to sell. According to the analyst, this indicator has historically been reliable in signaling both cycle tops and bottoms.

The analysis highlights key phases across multiple market cycles. During the 2017 bull market, a surge in LTH realized profits coincided with Bitcoin’s peak. By contrast, in the 2018–2019 bear market, profit realization slowed dramatically, while losses surfaced, reflecting the market bottom.

A similar pattern was observed in 2021, though the profit realization was more gradual, suggesting that selling pressure was spread across the market rather than concentrated in short bursts.

When Bitcoin entered the 2022–2023 downturn, realized losses increased significantly as the asset fell into the $15,000–$20,000 range. That period was characterized by panic selling among longer-term holders.

In the current market, however, PelinayPA notes that while profit-taking is visible, it remains moderate compared with past peaks. This indicates that, although selling is occurring, it has not yet reached the levels typically associated with a cycle top.

What the Current Data Suggests for Bitcoin

The current phase of moderate profit realization suggests caution but does not confirm that bitcoin has fully topped out. PelinayPA explained that:

Historically, sharp increases in LTH profit realization (large green spikes) align with bull market tops. Current selling (mid-2025) is measured and gradual, which implies BTC may still be in the late stages of a bull cycle. If LTH selling accelerates, it could mark the next peak.

This measured approach by long-term holders could mean that the market retains some room for additional upward movement, provided selling pressure does not intensify.

At the same time, the data highlights that a shift toward heavier profit-taking WOULD be an important warning signal for traders and institutions watching the market closely.

On-chain analytics firms frequently point to these long-term holder behaviors as leading indicators. While Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below its record high, how these investors act in the coming weeks could set the tone for the next stage of the cycle.

For now, the data suggests that the rally has not yet reached conditions historically associated with a definitive top, but market participants are advised to watch profit realization closely.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView