Bitcoin Retreats From $122K Peak: Temporary Cooldown or Bull Rally Exhaustion?
Bitcoin's parabolic surge hits a speed bump as prices retreat from the $122,000 threshold. The crypto king's 2025 bull run now faces its first real test of conviction.
Market Pulse: Whales Take Profits While Retail FOMO Lingers
On-chain data shows exchange inflows spiking as early buyers cash out—classic 'weak hands' behavior during a 30% monthly gain. Meanwhile, derivatives traders keep levering up, betting this is just another bull trap before the next leg up.
Technical Check: The $110K Support Battlefield
Fibonacci retracement levels suggest $110,000 could become the new psychological floor. A sustained break below that? Then we're talking about a potential trend reversal—or as Wall Street analysts call it, 'a healthy correction' (translation: we need cheaper entry points).
The Macro Wildcard: Fed Policy vs. Crypto's Decoupling Thesis
With Treasury yields creeping up again, Bitcoin's supposed inflation-hedge narrative gets another stress test. Funny how traditional finance still tries to price crypto using last century's playbook.
Closing Thought: This isn't 2021's leverage-fueled casino. Institutional custody solutions and spot ETF flows now provide real buy-side pressure. The dip? Probably just Wall Street catching its breath before the next Tether-printed rally.
Bitcoin Exchange Volume Concentration and Market Signals
BorisVest’s review found that during the first ATH in 2024, global market volumes were elevated, and Binance’s trading activity was more than double that of all other exchanges combined.
When Bitcoin retested its ATH later that year, overall market volumes increased across multiple platforms, yet Binance maintained its lead in total trading share.
In contrast, when bitcoin set a new record in mid-2025, total market volume did not show a significant increase compared to previous rallies. While Binance still recorded nearly twice the trading volume of other exchanges combined, the absence of a wider market volume expansion raised concerns.
The analyst noted that historically, ATHs supported by broad volume growth tend to indicate stronger market conviction. A lack of participation from other exchanges could signal potential challenges in sustaining higher prices over the coming months.
On-Chain Patterns Suggest Gradual Market Progress
In a separate assessment, CryptoQuant analyst Avocado onchain examined Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), a metric tracking the movement of long-dormant coins. The indicator recently turned lower after a brief rise, with Bitcoin’s price trading within a sideways range.
Historically, increases in Binary CDD have been linked to selling pressure from long-term holders, often leading to corrections. However, current market conditions, shaped by changes in custody solutions, over-the-counter trading activity, and institutional investment strategies, make interpreting CDD spikes more complex.
Avocado onchain highlighted that in recent cycles, Binary CDD rises have been followed by either prolonged sideways trading or moderate corrections.
The current data supports what the analyst describes as a “stair-step” rally, where the market advances gradually while cooling short-term speculative activity. This pattern, if sustained, could prevent rapid depletion of buying momentum and allow for more stable long-term growth.
Other on-chain data suggests that selling from long-term holders remains subdued, indicating limited pressure to exit positions at current price levels.
This aligns with the view that while near-term movements may be range-bound, the broader trend still holds the potential for future upside, contingent on broader participation and sustained investor demand.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
